Friday, July 25, 2008

TS FUNG-WONG (IGME) - Update #002


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG [IGME/09W/0808] 
Issued: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) FRI 25 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG (IGME) NOW HEADING WESTWARD IN THE DIRECTION
OF BATANES-TAIWAN AREA...MAY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON THIS
SUNDAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FUNG-WONG is expected to continue moving Westward
for the next 1 to 2 days as it intensifies. The 3 to 5-day long-rang
forecast shows the system becoming a 120-kph Typhoon (Category 1) be-
fore making landfall over Eastern Taiwan, near Hualien City Monday af-
ternoon & shall cross Central Taiwan in the evening. It shall move out
into Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning, July 29, as a weakened Tropical
Storm. FUNG-WONG shall make its final landfall off Southeastern China
Tuesday afternoon. Complete dissipation is forecast over Fujian Pro-
vince, China on Wednesday, July 30. *Alternate Forecast Scenario:
There is a possibilty that 09W may continue tracking West to WSW-ward
and cross over the Batanes Group of Islands or passing over Southern
Taiwan, if the High Pressure Steering Ridge to its northwest
strengthens.  

+ EFFECTS: FUNG-WONG's spiral rain bands continues to swirl over the
Northern Philippine Sea. This storm is not yet affecting any land
mass.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon may be re-
activated once again by TS FUNG-WONG (IGME) this weekend, and shall
affect Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Western Visayas
and Western Luzon. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light
to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & SW'ly winds
not
exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudflows (lahars)
and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes,
river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the rest of the Phili-
ppines bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially
in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 25 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.6º N...LONGITUDE 130.5º
DISTANCE 1: 600 KM (323
NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN 
DISTANCE 2: 890 KM (480 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 985 KM (532 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 985 KM (532 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME FRI JULY 25
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JULY: 21.7N 129.3E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 26 JULY: 21.7N 127.6E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 JULY: 22.2N 124.2E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 JULY: 23.8N 121.7E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 JULY POSITION: 21.6N 130.9E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE, APPROXI-
MATELY 600 NM DIAMETER CIRCULATION (MONSOON DEPRESSION) WITH
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 242115Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REFLECTS THIS WELL WITH A
BROAD LLCC CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 131.6E, THAT CORRESPONDS WITH
THE CENTROID OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND UNFLAGGED 35-
40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SMALL,
EXPOSED LLCC NEAR 22.4N 132.1E, NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, WHICH IS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTROID.
OVERALL, SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS SLOWLY IMPROVED WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT IN A 242008Z TRMM IMAGE. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND THE QUIKSCAT WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
THE AVAILABLE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ARE CONSIST-
ENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 JULY: 21.9N 130.6E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS FUNG-WONG (IGME)...go visit
our website @:

>
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