Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 08W (HELEN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [HELEN]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) TUE 15 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (HELEN) STILL CONSOLIDATING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS

CAGAYAN...ENHANCED SOUTHWEST (SW) MONSOON BRINGING RAINS AND WINDS ACROSS

METRO MANILA, LUZON INCLUDING SOUTHERN QUEZON & WESTERN BICOL REGION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 08W is expected to turn Westward and become a Tropical

Storm within the next 24 hours. It shall pass along the Northern Tip of

Cagayan early tomorrow morning (approx 1 AM), then shall track WNW to NW

across Balintang Channel, passing West of Batanes Group Thursday morning,

July 17. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system accelerating

NNW to Northward, making landfall along the SE coast of China Friday mor-

ning, Jul 18 w/ forecast peak wind speeds of 100 km/hr. 08W shall move

across mainland China thru Saturday & Sunday (Jul 19-20) as a downgraded

and dissipating system.

+ EFFECTS: 08W's western outer rain bands continues to spread across Nor-

hern Luzon particularly along Cagayan, Isabela, Babuyan & Calayan Group

of Islands. Rains and winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be expected along

these bands. Moderate to rough seas to prevail along the coastal areas

of the affected areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated

heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently enhanced

by TD 08W (HELEN) continues to affect Metro Manila, Luzon, Mindoro,

Southern Quezon including Bicol Region. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies

with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour

& SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mud-

flows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/

volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 15 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 123.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 210 KM (113 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 310 KM (167 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 220 KM (120 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 605 KM (325 NM) SSE OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME TUE JULY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & ISABELA.
#01 - BATANES, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT.
PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO AND AURORA.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.3N 123.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 16 JULY: 18.6N 121.8E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.8N 119.5E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JUNE: 24.1N 118.2E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 15 JULY POSITION: 18.3N 124.0E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TD 08W HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 142045Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUES TO FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD (PERPENDICULAR TO THE
STEERING RIDGE) DESPITE THE OBSERVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.4N 124.0E / WEST @ 05 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 08W (HELEN)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm