Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KALMAEGI (HELEN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 19 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #019
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (HELEN) HAS MADE ITS 2ND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN

CHINA LAST NIGHT...NOW DISSIPATING OVER ZHEJIANG PROVINCE. WINDS AND RAINS

CONTINUES OVER FUJIAN AND ZHEJIANG PROVINCES OF CHINA.

*THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE ON THIS SYSTEM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to move NNW across Zhejiang

Province and dissipate.

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's circulation is now well over Zhejiang and Fujian

Provinces bringing moderate to heavy rains...likely to dissipate within

the next 12 to 24 hours. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently enhanced

by TS KALMAEGI (HELEN) prevailing across Northern part of South China

Sea, Taiwan Strait, Southern China & Taiwan. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy

skies with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy

downpour & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Land-

slides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas

of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 27.8º N...LONGITUDE 119.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 110 KM (60 NM) WSW OF WENZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 2: 415 KM (225 NM) SSW OF SHANGHAI, CHINA

DISTANCE 3: 190 KM (102 NM) NNE OF FUZHOU, CHINA

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: ZHEJIANG PROVINCE, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: -- FEET (-.- METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT JULY 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 12 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12 HR. FORECAST:

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JULY: 28.9N 119.7E / 35-55 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY POSITION: 27.5N 119.6E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 08W MADE LANDFALL AT 18/10Z ABOUT
30 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LUOYUAN (588460), CHINA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM LUOYUAN AND SURROUNDING SITES (LISHUI, RUIAN, FUDING, JIAN'OU,
PUCHENG) INDICATE MINIMUM SLP NEAR 997.1 MB AND SURFACE WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 30-35 KNOTS AND
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE MINIMUM SLP, WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 34
KNOTS, AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
TS 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER LAND FOR AT
LEAST 24 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
THAT THE REMNANTS WILL DEVELOP INTO A MIDLATITUDE LOW AND TRACK OVER
THE COOLER WATERS OF THE WEST SEA AFTER 24-36 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO REGENERATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO
COOL SST (< 25C) AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER KOREA. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION...(more)

>> KALMAEGI {pronounced: kal~meegi}, meaning: Seagull.
Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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