Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KALMAEGI (HELEN) now over NW Taiwan... [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 18 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #015
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON KALMAEGI (HELEN) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN LATE

LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND NATION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to weaken further as it moves

into Taiwan Strait later this afternoon and shall make another landfall

over SE China, passing very close to Wenzhou City early tomorrow morning.

This system shall weaken gradually into a storm as it tracks northward

to NNE-ward - passing very close to Shanghai tomorrow afternoon or eve-

ning. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system accelerating

NE'ly across the Southern Yellow Sea, making its final landfall over

South Korea late Sunday evening (Jul 20). It shall then become Extra-

tropical upon entering the Sea of Japan by Monday or Tuesday

(Jul 21-22).

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's main circulation still soaking Taiwan, with its

inner rain bands affecting the whole island nation. Heavy rains of up

400 mm and winds not exceeding 150 km/hr may be expected over Northern

Taiwan. Very rough seas is possible along Taiwan's and SE China's

coastal areas. Meanwhile, Coastal areas of SE China & Batanes Group of

Islands remains under the effects of its outer bands - Rains and winds

not exceeding 50 km/hr can be expected today. Residents in low-lying

areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due

to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precau-

tionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Coastal Storm Surge

flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large

and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north

of Kalmaegi's projected path particularly when the system moves over

Northwestern tip of Taiwan & SE China. Minimal damage is possible on

this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along

coastal areas of SW & Eastern China with surf reaching 1 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently enhanced

by TY KALMAEGI (HELEN) prevailing across Northwestern Luzon. Partly

Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate passing rains

w/ at times heavy downpour & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can

be expected. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon

Trough) affecting rest of Visayas and Mindanao bringing scattered

rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or

evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.6º N...LONGITUDE 121.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30 NM) SSW OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 2: 75 KM (40 NM) NNW OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 3: 260 KM (140 NM) SE OF FUZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) SSE OF WENZHOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 5: 470 KM (255 NM) NNW OF BASCO, BATANES

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI JULY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - NOW LOWERED.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JULY: 26.0N 120.5E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY: 27.8N 120.3E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JULY: 32.3N 122.9E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JULY: 36.1N 127.4E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 24.7N 121.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 08W HAS CONTINUED TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD EXTREME NORTHERN TAIWAN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED AN ADDITIONAL
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE IN PART TO FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CIRRUS OUTFLOW ALOFT.
AN EXPANSIVE AND MATURE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, NEARBY RADAR
FIXES FROM TAIWAN HAVE AIDED IN PINPOINTING THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE
HAS YET TO DEVELOP AN EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT A
170533Z 89 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE...(more)

>> KALMAEGI {pronounced: kal~meegi}, meaning: Seagull.
Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 18 JULY: 24.8N 121.3E / NNW @ 17 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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