Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KALMAEIGI (HELEN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) WED 16 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (HELEN) rapidly intensifies as it drifted North-
ward during the past 6 hours. Winds and rains from its western bands
continues to pound Northern Luzon.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to move NW-ward within the next

24 hours, & shall pass over or very close to Batanes Group of Islands

tomorrow morning (approx 7-8 AM) and then make landfall over SE Taiwan

tomorrow evening as a Category 1 Typhoon. It shall be off the central

mountains of Taiwan Friday morning as a downgraded Tropical Storm. The

3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system recurving to the NNE

across the East China Sea on Saturday morning, July 19 & shall be over

Cheju Island, South Korea Monday morning, July 21st. *Alternate Forecast

Scenario: There is a possibilty that KALMAEGI may track abruptly North

to NNE-ward and pass to the east of Batanes Group of Islands tomorrow

sparing Taiwan from a direct hit, if the High Pressure Steering Ridge

to its North weakens or retreats.

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's western & southwestern outer rain bands continues

to spread across Northern Luzon becoming more intense along Cagayan,

Isabela, Babuyan & Calayan Group of Islands & Ilocos Norte. Rains and

winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along these bands. Rough

seas to prevail along the coastal areas of the affected areas. Residents

in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently

enhanced by TS KALMAEGI (HELEN) continues to prevail across Luzon,

Western Visayas, Southern Quezon including Bicol Region, becoming

more intense along Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Batangas

& Mindoro. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to

moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & SW'ly winds

not exceeding 50 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudflows (la-

hars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting rest of Visayas

and Mindanao bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 16 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.9º N...LONGITUDE 123.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 200 KM (108 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 235 KM (127 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 240 KM (130 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 530 KM (287 NM) SE OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES GROUP
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 405 KM (220 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME WED JULY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO, BATANES
& ILOCOS NORTE.
#01 - REST OF CAGAYAN, ISABELA, ABRA, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA & ILOCOS SUR.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:

8 PM (12 GMT) 16 JULY: 19.4N 123.0E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.7N 121.8E / 110-140 KPH / N @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JULY: 24.3N 121.4E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JUNE: 27.3N 122.7E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 JULY POSITION: 18.7N 123.6E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A AMSU IMAGE DEPICT
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED THAT
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. OVERALL, THE MODELS REMAIN
IN POOR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THEY ALL INDICATE A POLEWARD TRACK EAST
OF TAIWAN...(more)

>> KALMAEGI {pronounced: kal~meegi}, meaning: Seagull.
Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 16 JULY: 18.7N 123.2E / NORTH @ 07 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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