Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FENGSHEN (FRANK) to hit Northern Samar this PM... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TYPHOON FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 20 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006 / SATFIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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FENGSHEN (FRANK) RAPIDLY BECOMES THE 5TH TYPHOON OF 2008...APPROACHING

THE EASTERN COAST OF SAMAR...TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN SAMAR THIS

AFTERNOON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to reached its peak of 130 km/hr

before making landfall over Northern Samar approx 2 AM tomorrow morning

and shall pass very close to Catarman before moving into Albay Gulf around

8 AM tomorrow. The Eye shall make landfall over Catanduanes around 4 PM

tomorrow and pass over or very close to Virac. FENGSHEN is forecast to

maintain minimal typhoon status while crossing Catanduanes tomorrow. Its

closest point of approach to Naga City will be around 8-9 PM with a dis-

tance of 110 km to the NE. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the

typhoon turning NNW across the open waters of the Philippine Sea on Sunday,

June 22. An alternate scenario (based on ECMWF Model) shows FENGSHEN

continuing WNW-ward & passing in between Camarines Provinces and

Catanduanes Island.

+ EFFECTS: The Eye and EyeWall of FENGSHEN is now along the eastern coast

of Samar and is likely to move across Northern Samar later today. Its inner

bands is now spreading across the whole of Samar and Siargao Island. Strong

winds of up to 85 km/hr with moderate to heavy rains along the inner bands.

Meanwhile, the provinces of Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, the whole of Visayas

and Northern Mindanao are now under the effects of FENGSHEN's outer (rain)

bands. Moderate to heavy rains with winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be

expected today. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay

& of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible

LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert

as moderate to heavy rains associated by this typhoon are likely to prevail

beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for

possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be implemented today.

Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along

with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the

north of FRANK's projected path particularly on where the center makes

landfall in Northern Samar & Northern Bicol tonight and tomorrow. Minimal

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Philippines with surf reaching

2-3 feet at most.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Eastern Samar: 2PM today until 11PM tonight.
+ Northern Samar: 8PM tonight until 5AM tomorrow.
+ Coastal Sorsogon-Albay: 2PM tomorrow until 8PM tomorrow.
+ Catanduanes: 10AM tomorrow until 4AM Sunday.
+ Lagonoy Gulf-Caramoan Peninsula: 3PM tomorrow 3AM Sunday.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) 20 JUNE
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 11.2º N...LONGITUDE 126.9º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 170 KM (92 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 2: 290 KM (157 NM) SE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 390 KM (210 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 415 KM (225 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 450 KM (245 NM) SE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 480 KM (260 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN SAMAR-BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME FRI JUNE 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - SAMAR PROVINCES.

#02 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN IS., DINAGAT
IS., SIARGAO IS.

#01 - CAMARINES SUR, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., MASBATE, TICAO IS., NORTHERN
CEBU, BOHOL, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL NORTE & CAMIGUIN IS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.3N 126.1E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 12.3N 125.1E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 14.5N 124.0E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE: 17.5N 124.4E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE POSITION: 10.7N 127.6E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191000Z SSMI IMAGE
DEPICTED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK...(more).

>> FENGSHEN {pronounced: feng~shen}, meaning: God of Wind.
Name contributed by: China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.0N 127.4E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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