Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FENGSHEN (FRANK) now threatens Samar-Bicol... [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 19 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004 / SATFIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN (FRANK) INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY...NOW PACKING

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KM/HR...THREATENS SAMAR AND BICOL

PROVINCES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to continue moving WNW to NW'ly

within the next 24 hours, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow afternoon

(June 20). The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the potential typhoon

turning Northward while about 350-400 km East of the Bicol Region by Satu-

rday morning, June 21 w/ forecast wind speed of 150 km/hr. It shall then

accelerate, recurving towards the NNE to NE while moving across the open

waters of the Philippine Sea from Sunday until Tuesday (June 22-24). An

alternate scenario (based on ECMWF Model) shows FENGSHEN continuing NW-

ward & passing approximately 100 to 200 km to the East of Catanduanes

Island on Saturday, June 21st.

+ EFFECTS: The outer (rain) bands of FENGSHEN now spreading across the

whole of Visayas and Mindanao. The outer bands shall reach the Bicol

Peninsula tomorrow morning. Widespread rains & thunderstorms, with winds

of up to 50 km/hr can be expected along these outer bands. Meanwhile,

FENGSHEN's inner bands remain along the Philippine Sea and may start

affecting the Bicol Region & Samar Provinces tomorrow evening. Strong

winds of up to 75 km/hr with moderate to heavy rains can be expected once

the inner bands arrives. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano

in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas

where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located

must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this cloudiness

are likely to prevail beginning tomorrow evening. Residents in low-lying

areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to

the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary

measures must be implemented beginning tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon remains weak, but

may be enhanced by FENSGHEN by tomorrow or Saturday. If the monsoon

starts, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao will be the first areas to

get affected. Cloudy skies with light to moderate passing rains & SW'ly

winds not exceeding 40 km/hr may be expected. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect

the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Strong

ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Philippines - may continue

to bring scattered rains and chances of scattered thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) 19 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.6º N...LONGITUDE 128.8º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 370 KM (200 NM) ENE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 385 KM (208 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 420 KM (227 NM) ESE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 590 KM (320 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 620 KM (335 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 695 KM (375 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME THU JUNE 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - SAMAR & LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLAND, SURIGAO DEL NORTE,

DINAGAT ISLAND, SIARGAO ISLAND, SURIGAO DEL SUR & AGUSAN
DEL NORTE.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.2N 128.7E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 12.1N 128.0E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 14.9N 127.6E / 160-195 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JUNE: 17.5N 128.3E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 10.2N 130.0E.
^DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD AND ORGANIZE AROUND A MUCH-
IMPROVED AND BETTER-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE POLEWARD SIDE
OF THE STORM, AND FORMATIVE BANDING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND WRAP INTO THE TIGHTENED LLCC. TS 07W HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AT AN INCREASED RATE DUE TO
WELL-ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; IN ADDITION TO THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ESTABLISHED BY THE TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALSO REMAINED LOW OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL...(more).

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 19 JUNE: 10.1N 130.0E / NW @ 15 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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