Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 17 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 24 JUNE
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Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 24 JUNE
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Week One (1) Forecast: JUNE 17-23, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]
[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across Luzon, Visayas &
Mindanao. Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of the Madden-
Julian Oscillation's (MJO) weak Wet-Phase, onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon,
ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.
[2] Favorable conditions exist for the formation of Tropical Disturbance 94W
(LPA) into a Tropical Cyclone east of the Philippines (Philippine Sea). Active
convection & increasingly more prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of
this region are expected to gradually lead to more favorable conditions for
Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: STRONG.
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Week Two (2) Forecast: JUNE 24-30, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]
[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across the Philippines. Wet
conditions are expected in this area as a result of the onset of the Southwest (SW)
Monsoon, ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: LOW.
[2] Continued favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the
South China Sea, East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea) & Western Pacific
Ocean. Prevailing convection and prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward
of this region are expected to lead to continued favorable conditions for Tropical
Cyclone development. Confidence: LOW.
Mindanao. Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of the Madden-
Julian Oscillation'
ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.
[2] Favorable conditions exist for the formation of Tropical Disturbance 94W
(LPA) into a Tropical Cyclone east of the Philippines (Philippine Sea). Active
convection & increasingly more prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of
this region are expected to gradually lead to more favorable conditions for
Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: STRONG.
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Week Two (2) Forecast: JUNE 24-30, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]
[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across the Philippines. Wet
conditions are expected in this area as a result of the onset of the Southwest (SW)
Monsoon, ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: LOW.
[2] Continued favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the
South China Sea, East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea) & Western Pacific
Ocean. Prevailing convection and prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward
of this region are expected to lead to continued favorable conditions for Tropical
Cyclone development. Confidence: LOW.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook week.
> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday.
> The next outlook will be issued on Tuesday, June 24, 2008.
Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
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Always visit these web addresses for the latest info on Philippine Tropical
Cyclones:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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