Bushman's Typhoon Blog: All-New T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week June 10-23, 2008]

The All-New Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook

Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 10 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 17 JUNE
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Week One (1) Forecast: JUNE 10-16, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]

[1] An increased chance of above-average rainfall across Southern Philippines
(Palawan-Southern Visayas-Mindanao). Wet conditions are expected in this area
as a result of the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation's (MJO) Wet-Phase, onset
of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon, enhanced ITCZ and areas of above sea surface
temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Tropical Cyclone Formation over the South China Sea, Philippine Sea &
Northwest Pacific Ocean is NOT EXPECTED within the week. Atmospheric factors
including descending air masses & weak MJO phase over the region remains
unfavorable for Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: LOW.

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Week Two (2) Forecast: JUNE 17-23, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]

[1] An increased chance of above-average rainfall across the whole Philippines
(Luzon-Visayas-Mindanao). Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of
the wet-phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), onset of the Southwest (SW)
Monsoon, enhanced ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures.
Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclone Genesis for the South China
Sea & East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea). Active convection and increasingly
more prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of this region associated with
MJO are expected to gradually lead to more favorable conditions for Tropical
Cyclone development. Confidence: MODERATE.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook week.

> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday.

> The next outlook will be issued on Tuesday, June 17, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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