Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FENGSHEN (FRANK) approaching Southern China [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 24 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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FENGSHEN (FRANK) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT EXITS THE

NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...

THREATENS SOUTHERN CHINA PARTICULARY EASTERN GUANGDONG PROVINCE...NO

LONGER A THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to turn Northward within the
next 24 hours and shall gain strength before making landfall. The 2 to
5-day long-range forecast shows the system making landfall over Eastern
Guangdong in China (passing north of Shantou City) tomorrow morning,
and shall move across Fujian Province tomorrow afternoon - passing to
the north of Xiamen City in the evening, and north of Fuzhou City by
early Thursday morning (June 26). FENGSHEN shall then exit to the East
China Sea on Friday morning, and accelerate Northeastward across the
Sea of Japan, passing in between South Korea & Japan.

+ EFFECTS: FENGSHEN's main circulation continues to struggle reorganizing
over the South China Sea is no longer affecting Western Philippines.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by FENSGHEN, affecting Western & Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Bicol
Region, Palawan & Western Visayas. Cloudy skies with light to moderate
passing rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr may be expected.
Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along
steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges gene-
rated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of
the abovementioned areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting
the whole Philippines - may continue to bring scattered rains and
chances of scattered thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon
or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) 24 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.7º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 465 KM (250 NM) WNW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 440 KM (240 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

DISTANCE 3: 525 KM (285 NM) SSE OF SHANTOU, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 610 KM (330 NM) SW OF KAOSHIUNG, CHINA

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME TUE JUNE 24
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NOW LOWERED

12, 24, 48, 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 24 JUNE: 20.1N 115.8E / 110-140 KPH / N @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 25 JUNE: 21.7N 115.9E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 26 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JUNE: 26.0N 119.0E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 JUNE: 29.2N 122.9E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 24 JUNE POSITION: 18.5N 116.3E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED BUT DEEP CONVECT-
ION QUICKLY RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 231136Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. TS
07W HAS TRACKED INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT...(more).

>> FENGSHEN {pronounced: feng~shen}, meaning: God of Wind.
Name contributed by: China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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