Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS 07W (FRANK)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL STORM 07W [FRANK]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 19 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM 07W (FRANK) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA.
THREATENS EASTERN VISAYAS AND BICOL REGION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 07W is expected to continue tracking WNW to NW'ly

within the next 24 to 36 hours, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow

afternoon (June 20). The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the poten-

tial typhoon turning Northward while about 400 km East of the Bicol Region

on Saturday early morning, June 21 w/ forecast wind speed of 140 km/hr. It

shall then accelerate, recurving towards the NNE to NE across the open

waters of the Philippine Sea, without touching the Eastern Coast of the

Philippines from Sunday until early Tuesday morning (June 22-24).

+ EFFECTS: The outer (rain) bands of 07W is now affecting Surigao and

Northern Mindanao and shall reach Eastern Visayas later today. Widespread

rains & thunderstorms, with winds of up to 40 km/hr can be expected along

these outer bands. Throughout the weekend, these bands may be affecting

the Bicol Region. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds

for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.8º N...LONGITUDE 131.3º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 635 KM (343 NM) EAST OF SURIGAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 675 KM (365 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 710 KM (385 NM) ESE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 870 KM (470 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 905 KM (488 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 980 KM (530 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME THU JUNE 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE: 10.5N 130.6E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.6N 129.4E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 14.0N 128.2E / 140-165 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 16.8N 128.7E / 150-185 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 9.7N 131.9E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 6 PM JUNE 18 SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH AN ELONG-
ATED LLCC. AN 5:01 PM JUNE 18 QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER WITH MULTIPLE UNFLAGGED 25-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN QUADRANTS SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO TD STATUS. UPPER AIR
DATA ALSO SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING 20-27
KNOTS IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET WITHIN 120-240 NM OF THE CENTER...
(more).

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 9.4N 131.8E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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