Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FENGSHEN (FRANK) now over South China Sea [Update #008]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 23 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON FENGSHEN (FRANK) CONTINUES TO TRY REORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTH

CHINA SEA, DESPITE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS (VERTICAL WIND SHEAR)

OVER THE AREA. THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN LUZON...MAY

THREATEN SOUTHERN CHINA OR NORTHWESTERN TAIWAN.

Click HERE to view zoom past track map on where the typhoon passed over

Luzon!

**Based on actual observation, calm conditions have been observed in Quezon City and

nearby areas of Metro Manila around 6:00-8:00 AM yesterday morning. Latest official

satellite fix confirms that around 7:30 AM (23:30 GMT) June 22 - the cloud-filled EYE

passed over Quezon City.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to remain a weak Typhoon as it

moves NW'ly across the South China Sea within the next 24 hours. The

2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system recurving towards the

NE, and shall pass over Taiwan Strait on Wednesday morning, June 25.

It shall then weaken into a Tropical Storm as it enters the cooler sea

surface temperatures of the East China Sea and begin Extratropical

transition on Thursday, June 26. On Saturday, June 28, FENGSHEN shall

make landfall over Honshu, Japan as an Extratropical Cyclone.

+ EFFECTS: FENGSHEN's main circulation has returned back to sea and is

now reorganizing over the South China Sea, with only its Eastern Outer

(Rain) Bands spreading across Western Luzon. Passing moderate to heavy

rains with winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected within the

outer bands today. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher

grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must remain

implemented today. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along coastal

areas of Western Luzon with surf reaching 2-4 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by FENSGHEN, affecting Western & Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Bicol
Region, Palawan & Western Visayas. Cloudy skies with light to moderate
passing rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr may be expected.
Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along
steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges gene-
rated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of
the abovementioned areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting
the whole Philippines - may continue to bring scattered rains and
chances of scattered thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon
or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 23 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.9º N...LONGITUDE 118.1º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) WNW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH

DISTANCE 2: 255 KM (138 NM) WSW OF VIGAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 255 KM (138 NM) NW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 300 KM (162 NM) SW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 270 KM (145 NM) NW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 6: 725 KM (390 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA

DISTANCE 7: 410 KM (222 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME MON JUNE 23
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#02 - NORTHERN ZAMBALES, WESTERN PANGASINAN, & LA UNION.

#01 - ILOCOS SUR, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, BENGUET, REST OF PANGASINAN,
REST OF ZAMBALES, & TARLAC.

12, 24, 48, 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 JUNE: 18.8N 117.5E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 24 JUNE: 20.4N 117.3E / 120-150 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 25 JUNE: 23.2N 119.0E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JUNE: 26.3N 122.0E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE POSITION: 17.1N 118.5E.
^TYPHOON (TY) O7W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AS IT TRACKED OVER WESTERN LUZON. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A LARGE BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING WESTWARD. HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STORM INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS
AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 994 MB...(more).

>> FENGSHEN {pronounced: feng~shen}, meaning: God of Wind.
Name contributed by: China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 23 JUNE: 16.4N 118.4E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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