Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FENGSHEN (FRANK) lashes Samar...heads for Masbate [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 20 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008 / SATFIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON FENGSHEN (FRANK) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SAMAR AND IS NOW

OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF SAMAR OR IN THE VICINITY OF CATBALOGAN CITY...

INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT HEADS FOR MASBATE ISLAND.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to make landfall over Masbate

Island approx 2 AM tomorrow and shall move into Sibuyan Sea on its way

to Southern Tagalog Provinces. It shall pass over Marinduque around 10

PM tomorrow night and make landfall over Lucena City around 1 AM Sunday,

June 22 with forecast winds of 150 km/hr. The Eye shall make a close

passage to the east of Quezon City-Antipolo Area or over the Rizal Moun-

tain Range. FENGSHEN shall cross Central & Northern Luzon via Nueva Ecija

on Sunday afternoon and weaken into a Tropical Storm upon its exit over

Northern Cagayan on Monday afternoon, June 23. Its closest point of

approach to Naga City will be around 2 PM tomorrow with a distance of

100 km to the SW. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the typhoon

turning NNE across the open waters of the Balintang Channel on Tuesday

thru Wednesday, June 24-25. . An alternate scenario shows FENGSHEN tur-

ning NW-ward & passing over Camarines Provinces tomorrow afternoon. An

alternate scenario shows FENGSHEN veering NW-ward & passing over
Camarines Provinces tomorrow afternoon.

+ EFFECTS: The Eye of FENGSHEN is now along Western Samar with its EyeWall

affecting the portions of Northern & Eastern Samar, Northern Leyte and

is now approaching Masbate. Its inner bands is now spreading across Sor-

sogon, Albay, Northern Cebu, Northern Panay & Northern Negros. Strong

winds of up to 75 km/hr with moderate to heavy rains can be expected

along the inner bands. Meanwhile, whole Bicol Region and the whole of

Visayas and Northern Mindanao remains under the effects of FENGSHEN's

outer (rain) bands. Moderate to heavy rains with winds not exceeding 55

km/hr can be expected tonight. People living around the slopes of Mayon

Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the

areas where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are

located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this

typhoon are likely to prevail beginning today. Residents in low-lying

areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due

to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precau-

tionary measures must be implemented today. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of FRANK's projec-

ted path particularly on where the center makes landfall in Western Samar

& Masbate-Ticao area tonight. Minimal damage is possible on this type of

storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along coastal areas of

Eastern Philippines with surf reaching 2-3 feet at most.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Western Samar-Tacloban: Ongoing until 10PM tonight.
+ Masbate-Ticao-Burias: 8PM tonight until 6AM tomorrow.
+ Marinduque: 2PM tomorrow until 2AM Sunday.
+ Lucena-Laguna: 11PM tomorrow until 7AM Sunday.
+ Quezon City-Antipolo: 3AM Sunday until 10AM Sunday.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 20 JUNE
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 11.8º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 70 KM (38 NM) NNW OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 140 KM (75 NM) ESE OF MASBATE, PH

DISTANCE 3: 185 KM (100 NM) SSE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 235 KM (125 NM) SSE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 265 KM (143 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 330 KM (178 NM) SSE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: MASBATE-TICAO ISLAND AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME FRI JUNE 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BICOL REGION, BURIAS IS., SAMAR, LEYTE, & BILIRAN IS.

#02 - QUEZON, POLILLO IS., MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, NORTHERN CEBU,
& SOUTHERN LEYTE.

#01 - METRO MANILA, MINDORO, CAVITE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, RIZAL,
AURORA, WHOLE OF PANAY ISLAND, BORACAY, CEBU, BOHOL,
SIQUIJOR, NEGROS, GUIMARAS, DINAGAT & SIARGAO ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 12.2N 123.7E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 13.0N 122.5E / 150-185 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JUNE: 15.8N 121.1E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 JUNE: 18.5N 121.3E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE POSITION: 11.5N 125.3E.
^TY 07W HAS REACHED TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
DEVELOPED A SMALL AND RAGGED EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MORE RECENTLY THE EYE FEATURE HAS SINCE FILLED AND CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DUE TO A LOSS OF DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AND
THE BEGINNING OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A 192046Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTED
A MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO GAINED LATITUDE IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AND WESTWARD RETREATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH...(more).

>> FENGSHEN {pronounced: feng~shen}, meaning: God of Wind.
Name contributed by: China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.5N 125.1E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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