Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TYPHOON NARI [FALCON/12W/0711]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 15 SEPTEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 16 SEPTEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 16 SEPTEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON NARI (FALCON)
JUST PASSED TO THE WEST OF OKINAWA LAST NIGHT ANDIS NOW HEADING TOWARDS CHEJU ISLAND AND SOUTH KOREA...NOW AT CATEGORY
FOUR (4) WITH WINDS OF 220 KM/HR.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NARI is expected to slow down, turn NNW'ly for the
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NARI is expected to slow down, turn NNW'ly for the
next 12 hours and shall weaken later as it heads North later this af-
ternoon. The 2 to 4-day forecast shows NARI recurving towards the NNE
as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increasing upper level winds
(wind shear) by early Monday morning, Sept 17 - passing over Cheju Is-
land, Korea. The system shall make landfall over the southeastern part
of South Korea before noon Monday and exit thru the Sea of Japan by
Tuesday morning, Sept 18. NARI shall become an Extratropical Cyclone
on Wednesday (Sept 18) while moving fast across the Sea of Japan.
+ EFFECTS: NARI remains an average-small compact system with typhoon
+ EFFECTS: NARI remains an average-small compact system with typhoon
force winds only concentrated near the eye. Only its outer rain bands
affecting Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding
of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dan-
gerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of NARI's
projected path especially over Cheju Island & South Korea tonight &
tomorrow. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks,
low-lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas. Precautionary
measures must be initiated as the powerful system approaches.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest Monsoon embedded
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest Monsoon embedded
along the renewed wet-phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is
being enhanced by another strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) East of
Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with light to moderate & sometimes heavy
rainfall caused by thunderstorms & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher
can be expected today along the western sections of Bicol Region,
Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Landslides and flooding is
likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying
& flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/92W/1003 MB)
over the Northeastern Philippine Sea is now expected to become the next
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/92W/1003 MB)
over the Northeastern Philippine Sea is now expected to become the next
Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours as over-all organization
continues to improve. This system was located about 1,245 km East of
Aparri, Cagayan (18.7N 133.4E)...now moving Westward with max winds of
35 km/hr. This new potential storm is likely to become a major player
over the Philippine Sea this weekend as most computer models continues
to suggest. Stay tuned.
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 27.3º N...LONGITUDE 126.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 200 KM (108 NM) WNW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 690 KM (373 NM) SSW OF CHEJU ISLAND
DISTANCE 3: 910 KM (490 NM) SSW OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CHEJU ISLAND-SOUTH KOREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 31 FEET (9.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JAPAN TIME SAT SEPTEMBER 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 28.8N 125.6E / 215-260 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 30.1N 125.5E / 185-230 KPH / N @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 33.2N 126.2E / 110-140 KPH / NNE @ 17 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 26.8N 126.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 12W (NARI) HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER TROPO-
SPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 26-KM EYE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...(more)
>> NARI {pronounced: na~ri}, meaning: A lily. A kind of plant which
grows from a bulb, with large white or coloured flowers, commonly
found in Korea in summer. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.
_____________________________________________________________________________
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 26.8N 126.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 12W (NARI) HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD A TROPICAL UPPER TROPO-
SPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 26-KM EYE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...(more)
>> NARI {pronounced: na~ri}, meaning: A lily. A kind of plant which
grows from a bulb, with large white or coloured flowers, commonly
found in Korea in summer. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.
____________
_____________________________________________________________________________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY NARI (12W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY NARI (12W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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