Friday, September 14, 2007

Typhoon NARI (12W) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TYPHOON NARI [FALCON/12W/0711] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 14 SEPTEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 14 SEPTEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
NEWLY-FORMED NARI (FALCON) 
BECOMES THE EIGHTH TYPHOON OF 2007...MAY PASS
OVER OKINAWA THIS AFTERNOON
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NARI is expected to continue moving WNW to NW'ly for
the next 12 hours, passing over Okinawa around 4 PM Japan Standard Time
(JST) and shall turn more NNW'ly tonight. The 2 to 4-day forecast shows
NARI reaching its peak winds of 175 kph (Cat 2) as it turns Northward
around Saturday afternoon, Sept 15 and passing close to the SW of Cheju
Island, Korea early Sunday morning, Sept 16. The system shall cross the
SE tip of South Korea around Sunday afternoon, Sept 16...becoming Extra-
tropical early Tuesday morning (Sept 18)

+ EFFECTS: NARI's remains an average system with typhoon force winds
only present in a small area. Outer rain bands is now appraoching the
Japanese island of Okinawa. Strong winds with heavy rains can be expec-
ted over Okinawa this afternoon as the main core of NARI moves over the
area. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the north of NARI's projected path especially over Okinawa
today. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-
lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas. Precautionary
measures must be initiated as the powerful system approaches.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest Monsoon embedded along the
renewed wet-phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is being en-
hanced by Typhoon NARI (FALCON) & another strong Tropical Disturbance
(LPA) along Western Visayas and Western Mindanao. Partly cloudy skies
with light to moderate & some chance of heavy rainfall caused by thunder-
storms & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher can be expected today along
the abovementioned areas. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur
along steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: A new rapidly developing Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/92W/1003 MB) has been observed over the Philippne Sea and may become
the next Tropical Cyclone within 24 to 48 hours. This system was located
about 785 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes (14.7N 131.4E)...Quasi-stationary
with max winds of 25 kph. This new disturbance is likely to become a major
player over the Philippine Sea this weekend as most computer models now
suggest...continued monitoring on this system is expected. Stay tuned.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.5º N...LONGITUDE 129.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 285 KM (155
NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 920 KM (497 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 380 KM (205 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JAPAN TIME FRI SEPTEMBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 25.9N 127.8E / 150-185 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 27.8N 126.4E / 165-205 KPH / NNW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 32.2N 126.6E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.0N 130.4E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (NARI) HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TRANSITIONING FROM A DEPRESSION WITH LOOSELY
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO A WELL-DEFINED, STIFF VORTEX. A MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BANDING EYE HAS DEVELOPED, BUT AS
THIS LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE IS OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OVERCAST IN INFRA-
RED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
...(more)

>> NARI {pronounced: na~ri}, meaning: A lily. A kind of plant which 
   grows from a bulb, with large white or coloured flowers, commonly 
   found in Korea in summer
. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY NARI (12W)...go visit
our website @:

>
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