Tuesday, September 25, 2007

TD FRANCISCO (15W) - Final Update


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003 **FINAL**
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCISCO [15W/0713] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 25 SEPTEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 25 SEPTEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
FRANCISCO (15W) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE OVER THE
GULF OF TONKIN DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (UPPER-LEVEL WINDS)
AFFECTING ITS CIRCULATION.

*This is the Final Update on this system.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FRANCISCO is expected to make landfall over Northern
Vietnam this afternoon or tonight and dissipate Wednesday (Sept 26) while
moving across the mountainous terrain of Northern Vietnam and Laos

+ EFFECTS: FRANCISCO's rain bands currently dissipating over the Gulf of
Tonkin - bringing rainshowers across Northern Vietnam, Western Hainan
and Laos.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYSouthwest Monsoon
embedded along the statio-
nary wet-phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This monsoon system
will continue to bring cloudy skies with light to moderate to sometimes
heavy rainfall & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher over Luzon becoming
more frequent over the Western Sections including Metro Manila. Land-
slides and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.6º N...LONGITUDE 107.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 120 KM (65
NM) WNW OF DONGFANG, HAINAN IS., CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 200 KM (108 NM) WEST OF DANZHOU, HAINAN IS., CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 250 KM (135 NM) SE OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HK TIME TUE SEPTEMBER 25
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 19.8N 106.1E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 20.2N 104.3E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.6N 108.3E.
^
...(more)

>> FRANCISCO {pronounced: FRAN~cis~co}, meaning: Chamorro man's name

   Name contributed by: USA.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD FRANCISCO (15W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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