Friday, March 26, 2010

TS OMAIS (AGATON) - Update #012

 


for Friday, 26 March 2010 [8:30 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri March 26 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD OMAIS (AGATON).


OMAIS (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 26 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • OMAIS (AGATON) just a Tropical Depression...its wind circulation continues to decay, however, deep convection (rain clouds) continues to survive within its periphery. The approaching Cold Front & late-season NE Monsoon located off Taiwan will continue to dissipate OMAIS in the coming hours.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Mar 26 2010
    Location of Center: 16.5º N Lat 131.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 800 km (432 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 830 km (450 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 895 km (483 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 4: 950 km (513 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 5: 1,090 km (588 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: NW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    Towards: Central Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K TrackMap #006 (for Public):
    6 AM PhT Fri Mar 26

    + Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to continue to weaken w/in the next 12 hours [2PM MAR 26: 16.9N 131.2E...about 1,010 km ESE of Tuguegarao City]. It will completely dissipate by early tomorrow morning, with its remnants being absorbed into the approaching Cold Front and NE Monsoon [2AM MAR 27: 17.2N 130.8E...965 km ESE of Tuguegarao City]. The remnants of OMAIS is likely to move SW-ward across the Philippine Sea and might bring scattered rains or showers across Quezon, Bicol Region and Northern Visayas within the next 2 to 3 days. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' decaying rainbands remain over the sea...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy rain) situated along the northeastern periphery of OMAIS' (AGATON) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with occasional drizzles-showers-rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, QUEZON, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of up to 8 to 10 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur beginning today until Monday.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD OMAIS (AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Mar 26
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 26 MARCH: 16.9N 131.2E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / NW @ 04 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 MARCH: 17.2N 130.8E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH POSITION: 16.0N 131.2E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, LOCATED SOUTHWEST
    OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME DECOUPLED
    OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE THE
    RECENT, FLARING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NEVERTHELESS, TD OMAIS IS EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE DRIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
    DECOUPLES OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
    START TO TURN MORE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE MOVING OUT OF CHINA...
    (
    more)

    >> OMAIS, meaning: Palauan word for "wandering around"Name contributed by: United States of America.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH: 17.1N 132.6E / NNE @ 11 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD OMAIS (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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