Monday, March 22, 2010

TD 02W (UNNAMED) - Update #001

 


for Monday, 22 March 2010 [11:55 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon March 22 2010):

Now initiating 6-hrly updates on the newly-formed TD 02W.


02W (TWO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 22 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Depression 02W (UNNAMED) continues to move closer to Yap & Ulithi Islands...expected to enter Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday morning.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 02W.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon Mar 22 2010
    Location of Center: 7.7º N Lat 141.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 435 km (235 nm) SE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 2: 715 km (385 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 725 km (392 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 4: 785 km (425 nm) East of Palau, FSM
    Distance 5: 1,700 km (918 nm) ESE of Northern Mindanao
    Distance 6: 1,980 km (1,070 nm) ESE of Bicol Region
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm [Moderate]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
    Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    8 AM PhT Mon Mar 22

    + Forecast Outlook: 02W is expected to move WNW to NNW within the next 2 to 5 days, passing very close to Yap Island tomorrow morning as a minimal Tropical Storm [8AM Mar 23: 9.5N 138.0E]. The system is now forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR) by Wednesday morning and will move into the Philippine Sea [8AM Mar 24: 11.2N 134.3E]. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 02W becoming a strong Tropical Storm (100 kph) on Thursday & Friday, but will recurve more NW-ward sparing the Bicol Region & Samar Provinces [8AM Mar 25: 12.8N 131.6E...8AM Mar 26: 14.6N 129.8E]. 02W will start to slowly weaken while moving NNW across the Central Philippine Sea on Saturday morning, in a track towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands...passing about 600 km. NE of Bicol Region [8AM Mar 27: 16.8N 129.0E]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 02W's developing outer rainbands continues to spread into Yap & Ulithi Islands...Light to Moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing isolated showers & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate easterly to variable winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD 02W (UNNAMED)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 22 MARCH: 8.6N 140.1E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 23 MARCH: 9.5N 138.0E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 24 MARCH: 11.2N 134.3E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 15 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 25 MARCH: 12.8N 131.6E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 22 MARCH POSITION: 7.5N 142.2E.

    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
    HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
    VECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
    EAST OF THE LLCC IS CREATING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER
    THE LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALSO
    CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS HAMP-
    ERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TD 02W. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS A BAND OF
    DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING TOWARDS THE LLCC FROM THE EAST INTO THE
    NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SOUNDINGS AT GUAM, YAP, AND PALAU INDICATE
    MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EXTENDS FROM GUAM THROUGH PALAU, WHICH HAS ALSO
    BEEN OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT WRAPPING
    TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TD 02W...
    (
    more)
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 02W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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