Wednesday, March 24, 2010

TS 02W (AGATON) - Update #007

 


for Wednesday, 24 March 2010 [1:13 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed March 24 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 02W (AGATON).


02W (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 02W [AGATON]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 24 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Storm 02W (AGATON) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now moving into the Philippine Sea. Storm's circulation not looking healthy.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Mar 24 2010
    Location of Exposed Center: 11.7º N Lat 134.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,025 km (553 nm) East of Borongan, E.Samar
    Distance 2: 1,160 km (625 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 3: 1,215 km (655 nm) ESE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 4: 1,275 km (688 nm) ESE of Naga City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm [Moderate]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    Towards: Central Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 320 km (170 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    T2K TrackMap (for Public):
    12 PM PhT Wed Mar 24

    + Forecast Outlook: 02W (AGATON) is expected to resume moving WNW to NW-ward within 24 hours and track across the central part of the Philippine Sea [8PM MAR 24: 12.4N 133.2E...8AM MAR 25: 13.9N 131.6E]. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows 02W turning NNW across the Philippine Sea as it weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) tomorrow evening [8PM MAR 25: 15.3N 131.0E]...about 740 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes. 02W (AGATON) will eventually dissipate into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) on Friday morning [8AM MAR 26: 16.2N 130.6E...about 905 km East of Casiguran, Aurora] due to unfavorable atmospheric environment (eg. increased upper-level winds, cooler SST) affecting the system. Majority of Global Forecast Guidance Models agree on this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 02W's rainbands remains over the ocean...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate rain) near the center of 02W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TS 02W (AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 24 MARCH: 12.4N 133.2E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NW @ 20 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 25 MARCH: 13.9N 131.6E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NNW @ 15 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 26 MARCH: 16.2N 130.6E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 24 MARCH POSITION: 11.1N 135.3E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND DECOUPLED
    APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE
    EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER,
    UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG RADIAL
    OUTFLOW...
    (
    more)
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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 02W (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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