Friday, March 26, 2010

TD OMAIS (AGATON) - Update #013

 


for Friday, 26 March 2010 [1:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri March 26 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD OMAIS (AGATON).


OMAIS (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAIS [AGATON/02W/1001]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 26 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Depression OMAIS (AGATON) struggling over the Northern Philippine Sea...likely to dissipate by tomorrow.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Mar 26 2010
    Location of Center: 18.3º N Lat 131.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 970 km (525 nm) NE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 2: 1,035 km (560 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 3: 1,040 km (562 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 4: 1,045 km (565 nm) East of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 5: 1,200 km (648 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: NNE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    Towards: Central Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K TrackMap #007 (for Public):
    12 PM PhT Fri Mar 26

    + Forecast Outlook: OMAIS (AGATON) is expected to weaken w/in the next 12 hours and will completely dissipate by tomorrow morning, with its remnants being absorbed into the approaching Cold Front and the NE Monsoon [8AM MAR 27: 18.5N 131.9E...1,060 km ESE of Basco, Batanes]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: OMAIS' decaying rainbands remain over the sea...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy rain) situated along the northeastern periphery of OMAIS' (AGATON) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with occasional drizzles-showers-rains can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, QUEZON, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of up to 8 to 10 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur beginning today until Monday.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD OMAIS (AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Mar 26
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 26 MARCH: 18.1N 131.7E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / NNE @ 04 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 27 MARCH: 18.5N 131.9E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH POSITION: 17.5N 131.5E.

    *OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TD 02W HAS WEAKENED UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR AND HAS DRIFTED NORTH TOWARDS THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC
    ZONE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS SHEARED FROM MAIN CONVECTION AT THE
    BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM HAS RE-DEVELOPED CENTRAL
    CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, POSSIBLY DUE TO AN ENHANCED
    THERMAL GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE GRADUAL ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AIR FRO
    THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL STREAMING OFF
    TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR, LEAVING THE LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
    BASED ON A 252326Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 30
    TO 35 KNOTS...
    (
    more)

    >> OMAIS, meaning: Palauan word for "wandering around"Name contributed by: United States of America.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) FRI 26 MARCH: 17.7N 132.2E / NNE @ 11 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD OMAIS (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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