Tuesday, March 23, 2010

TS 02W (PRE-AGATON) - Update #005

 


for Tuesday, 23 March 2010 [6:38 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon March 22 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 02W (Pre-AGATON).


02W (TWO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 02W [PRE-AGATON]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 23 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Storm 02W (PRE-AGATON) has just passed north of Yap Island early this afternoon...now moving away towards the Philippine Sea.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 02W.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Mar 23 2010
    Location of Center: 10.9º N Lat 137.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 170 km (92 nm) NNW of Yap, FSM
    Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,280 km (690 nm) ENE of Northern Mindanao
    Distance 4: 1,310 km (707 nm) ESE of Samar
    Distance 5: 1,460 km (788 nm) ESE of Bicol Region
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150-180 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    Towards: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 PM PhT Tue Mar 23

    + Forecast Outlook: 02W is expected to continue moving WNW to NW-ward within the next 2 days, entering the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR) tomorrow morning and will track towards the Central Philippine Sea in the afternoon [2PM MAR 24: 12.6N 134.3E]. The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows 02W turning northerly across the Northern Philippine Sea, weakening into a Depression on Friday [2PM MAR 26: 16.2N 131.7E...about 840 km NE of Bicol Region], & dissipating on Saturday afternoon [2PM MAR 27: 16.9N 131.9E...about 1,000 km East of Northern Luzon] due to unfavorable atmospheric environment (eg. increased upper-level winds, cooler SST). Majority of global forecast models agree on this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 02W's rainbands has moved away from Yap and Ulithi Islands. Storm warnings across these islands are now lifted. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 110 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 120 to 180 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 02W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Yap & Ulithi. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia.

    + Current Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing isolated showers & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate easterly to variable winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected along these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TS 02W (PRE-AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 24 MARCH: 11.3N 136.5E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 24 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 24 MARCH: 12.6N 134.3E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 17 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 25 MARCH: 14.9N 131.9E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / N @ 05 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 MARCH: 16.2N 131.7E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / NNE @ 04 KPH

    REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 23 MARCH POSITION: 10.2N 138.7E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
    WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 222259Z
    TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
    FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TS 02W
    REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
    WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO
    MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT.
    TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE (SR)...
    (
    more)
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 02W (PRE-AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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