Wednesday, March 24, 2010

TS 02W (AGATON) - Update #008

 


for Wednesday, 24 March 2010 [6:41 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed March 24 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 02W (AGATON).


02W (AGATON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 02W [AGATON]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 24 March 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

  • Tropical Storm 02W (AGATON) has slowed down as it enters the Central Philippine Sea...remains a small system.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Mar 24 2010
    Location of Center: 12.8º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 955 km (515 nm) ENE of Borongan, E.Samar
    Distance 2: 1,075 km (580 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 3: 1,120 km (605 nm) ESE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 4: 1,185 km (640 nm) ESE of Naga City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    Towards: Central Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 320 km (170 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public):
    6 PM PhT Wed Mar 24

    + Forecast Outlook: 02W (AGATON) is expected to continue moving WNW to NW-ward within 24 hours across the central part of the Philippine Sea [2AM MAR 25: 13.4N 132.9E]. It will be downgraded into a Tropical Depression (TD) tomorrow afternoon [2PM MAR 25: 14.9N 131.7E...about 800 km ENE of Bicol Region]. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows 02W turning NNW-ward as it dissipates into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) on Friday afternoon [2PM MAR 26: 17.1N 131.1E...about 915 km East of Casiguran, Aurora] due to unfavorable atmospheric environment (eg. increased upper-level winds, cooler SST) affecting the system. Majority of Global Forecast Guidance Models agree on this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 02W's rainbands remain over the ocean...no effects & hazards are in place. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (heavy rain) near the center of 02W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TS 02W (AGATON)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp0210.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 25 MARCH: 13.4N 132.9E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NW @ 17 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 25 MARCH: 14.9N 131.7E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / NNW @ 13 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 26 MARCH: 17.1N 131.1E / 35-55 KPH (LPA)

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 24 MARCH POSITION: 12.2N 134.6E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND DECOUPLED
    FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO MODERATE
    SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    AXIS THAT IS ENHANCING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
    BASED ON THE ABOVE SATELLITE ANIMATION AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.5. TS 02W IS
    FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN THIS STEERING
    RIDGE AND ALLOW TS 02W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AFTER 12 HRS. THE TROUGH
    WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN VWS THAT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE
    SYSTEM AFTER 24 HRS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN FULLY DISSIPATE AS A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY 48 HRS. THE NUMERICAL
    MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TURN NORTHWARD AND ALSO INDICATE THE
    SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST
    TRACK IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
    THROUGH 36 HOURS WHILE THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE MODEL
    GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EVIDENT VWS AND FORECASTED DISSIPATION BEFORE THE
    SYSTEM CAN TURN INTO THE MID-LATITUDES....
    (
    more)
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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 02W (AGATON)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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