Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHAN-HOM (EMONG)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TYPHOON CHAN-HOM [EMONG/02W/0902]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 07 MAY 2009
Source: US JTWC WARNING #014/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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CHAN-HOM (EMONG) WHICH HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF

VIETNAM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, HAS TURNED EASTWARDS AND ENTERED THE

PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND BECOMES THE 2ND TYPHOON
OF THE 2009 WESTERN PACIFIC SEASON...NOW HEADING DANGEROUSLY TOWARDS

PANGASINAN-LA UNION-ILOCOS SUR AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHAN-HOM is expected to continue moving on a

generally ENE to NE track for the next 3 days, may still intensify

prior to landfall. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows CHAN-HOM

making landfall in between Ilocos Sur & La Union or in between La Union

& Pangasinan between 9-11 AM Friday May 8. It shall gradually weaken

upon crossing the Cordillera Mountains Friday afternoon til Saturday

and dissipate off the northeastern tip of Luzon, or in the vicinity of

Northern Cagayan by early Sunday morning May 10. These window of

projected paths are based on the majority of computer models but

changes are still possible as the storm is still less than a day

away from impact. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility

that CHAN-HOM shall veer slightly to the North and just skim the coast

of Ilocos provinces, and make landfall over Taiwan. This scenario is

likely if the predicted High Pressure Ridge off South Korea strengthens

and becomes the dominant steering factor.

+ EFFECTS: CHAN-HOM's circulation has become more compact w/ only a

small area of strong winds. Its outer rainbands now affecting affecting

the western coast of Luzon including Metro Manila and is expected to

bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall with passing squalls

and thunderstorms. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can

be along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to

300 mm near the center of TS CHAN-HOM. Residents in low-lying areas &

steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-

threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated

heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5

feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous ba-

ttering waves...is possible near the center of CHAN-HOM. Minimal damage

is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip

Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon &

Western Visayas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (NE) Monsoon temporarily

enhanced by CHAN-HOM is expected to start affecting Western Visayas

and Palawan beginning today, as the system moves closer to Western

Luzon. Cloudy skies with possible passing drizzle to occasional rains

and thunderstorms/squalls w/ SW'ly winds not exceeding 50 km/hr is

possible on these areas beginning today until Saturday. Possible land-

slides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods

are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, I.T.C.Z

(aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) THU 07 MAY 2009
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.1º N...LONGITUDE 116.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 385 KM (208 NM) WNW OF SUBUIC BAY/OLONGAPO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 400 KM (215 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 420 KM (225 NM) WEST OF CLARK/ANGELES CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 425 KM (230 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PH

DISTANCE 5: 450 KM (243 NM) SW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 465 KM (250 NM) WNW OF METRO MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 7: 490 KM (265 NM) SW OF VIGAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 970 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PANGASINAN-LA UNION-ILOCOS SUR
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST THU MAY 07
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z THU MAY 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, LA UNION, BENGUET,
PANGASINAN, & ZAMBALES.
#01 - APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA,
QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, & BATAAN.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 MAY: 15.7N 117.7E / 130-160 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 08 MAY: 16.4N 119.3E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 MAY: 17.8N 121.5E / 55-75 KPH / NNE @ 04 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 MAY: 18.6N 122.1E / 35-55 KPH / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 MAY POSITION: 14.9N 116.0E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHAN-HOM) HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS RAGGED SYMMETRY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS O2W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
CYCLONE IS ALSO EXHIBITING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 07 MAY: 15.1N 116.4E / NE @ 17 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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