Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KUJIRA (DANTE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA [DANTE/01W/0901]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 03 MAY 2009
Source: US JTWC WARNING #005/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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KUJIRA (DANTE) HAS BEEN UPGRADED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND BEGUN HEADING

NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY. THE STORM PASSED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE

ISLAND OF CATANDUANES EARLY THIS MORNING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KUJIRA is expected to continue accelerating NNE to

NE-ward in the direction of the Philippine Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long Range

Forecast still shows KUJIRA accelerating NE to ENE away from Bicol and

the Philippines but intensiying to 110 kph.

+ EFFECTS: KUJIRA's main circulation has shrunked. Its outer rainbands

will only bring light to moderate rains accompanied w/ passing light

squalls (aka. "Subasko") across the Eastern Bicol Region, while its

inner rainbands is now over the Philippine Sea, no longer affecting

Catanduanes. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is

possible along its inner rain bands.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) SUN 03 MAY 2009
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.6º N...LONGITUDE 125.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 185 KM (100 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 220 KM (120 NM) NE OF GOTA BEACH, CARAMOAN, CAM SUR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 265 KM (143 NM) NE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 270 KM (145 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 280 KM (150 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 295 KM (160 NM) ENE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

DISTANCE 7: 485 KM (262 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 1-3 FEET (0.3-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 PM PST SUN MAY 03
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 06Z SUN MAY 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#02 - CATANDUANES.
#01 - CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ALBAY, CATANDUANES,
MASBATE, BURIAS & TICAO ISLANDS, SOUTHERN QUEZON &
POLILLO IS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 MAY: 14.7N 125.8E / 95-120 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 04 MAY: 15.3N 127.2E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 05 MAY: 16.8N 131.8E / 110-140 KPH / ENE @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 MAY: 19.3N 137.0E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 MAY POSITION: 13.9N 124.9E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (KUJIRA) HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND HAS
STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
RECENT 031102Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BROKEN POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHARY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 01W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
MORE DEFINED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TS 01W IS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE,
HOWEVER COUNTERFLOW TO THE NORTH HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
ANALYSIS PERIOD...(more)

>> KUJIRA, meaning: Cetus; Whale. Name contributed by: Japan.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 03 MAY: 14.2N 125.3E / ENE @ 7 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KUJIRA (DANTE)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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