Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD CRISING disorganized...LPA drenching Bicol with rains... [Update #001]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING [96W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 01 MAY 2009
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #003 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING (96W) NEWLY-FORMED OFF THE SOUTH CHINA

SEA...DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH WEAK RAINCLOUDS.

*Residents and visitors along Western Luzon should closely monitor the progress of CRISING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TD CRISING is expected to continue drifting West
for the next 2 to 3 days. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows TD
CRISING changing track towards the NE direction, crossing Northern or
Central Luzon sometime early next week (May 4-6) as a developed
Tropical Storm.

+ EFFECTS: CRISING's circulation has become disorganized over the

South China Sea expected to bring scattered rains with passing squalls

and thunderstorms across Mindoro, and parts of Northern Palawan today.

Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek

evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) over Ragay Gulf or off the coast of

Burias Island has tracked NE and is now over Baao in Camarines Sur...

located near lat 13.5N lon 123.4E...about 10 km North of Iriga City or

25 km SE of Naga City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph,

with gusts up to 50 kph....currently passing between the mountains of

Iriga and Isarog. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall can be

expected along the Bicol Region becoming more intense along Camarines

Sur & Camarines Norte...Flooding over hazard risk areas of the Bicol

River Basin is possible at this time. At 4:46 AM this morning, The

Typhoon2000.com Weather Station recorded wind gust of 47 kph coming

from the NE. 45 mm. of rain has been measured from 12AM to 6AM May 1

...Barometer is at 1006.2 hectopascals (hPa).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) FRI 01 MAY 2009
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.5º N...LONGITUDE 117.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 440 KM (238 NM) SW OF MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 385 KM (208 NM) WSW OF PUERTO GALERA, PH
DISTANCE 3: 300 KM (160 NM) WNW OF CORON, PALAWAN, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 300 KM (160 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW PAGASA TRACKING MAP: 4 AM MANILA TIME FRI MAY 01

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#01 - PALAWAN & CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 MAY: 12.5N 115.8E

2 AM (18 GMT) 03 MAY: 12.6N 114.1E

2 AM (18 GMT) 04 MAY: 12.7N 112.3E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 MAY POSITION: 12.5N 117.5E.

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RECENT PAGASA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD CRISING (96W)...go visit
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

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