Bushman's Typhoon Blog: CHAN-HOM (EMONG) weakens...now over the Philippine Seal... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM [EMONG/02W/0902]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) FRI 08 MAY 2009
Source: US JTWC WARNING #018/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for supplemental information purposes only.

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CHAN-HOM (EMONG) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER CROSSING THE

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON...NOW REORGANIZING OVER THE

PHILIPPINE SEA.

*Residents and visitors along Isabela and Cagayan should closely monitor the progress of CHAN-HOM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHAN-HOM is expected to turn NE to Northward over

the Philippine Sea within the next 24 hours and accelerate to the NNW

on Sunday May 10.

+ EFFECTS: CHAN-HOM's circulation has become better organized while
over the Philippine Sea east of Aurora. The low-level circulation has

return to sea and is trying to align with the mid-level circulation.

This system is no longer affecting any part of the Philippines. Its

Southwestern outermost bands is currently affecting Central and

Southern Bicol - bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) FRI 08 MAY 2009
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.5º N...LONGITUDE 124.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 270 KM (145 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 330 KM (178 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 355 KM (190 NM) NNE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 445 KM (240 NM) NE OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 1-3 FEET (0.3-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: EAST @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST FRI MAY 08
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 00Z FRI MAY 08
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NOW LOWERED.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 08 MAY: 17.2N 125.1E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 09 MAY: 17.9N 126.0E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 10 MAY: 20.7N 126.1E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 11 MAY: 23.0N 125.4E / 75-95 KPH / NNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 08 MAY POSITION: 16.9N 123.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM) HAS TRACKED OVER LUZON IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS 072100Z FORECAST HAD TS 02W FINALLED AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAD BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE LLCC WAS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF LUZON. TS 02W HAS RECENTLY CROSSED
OVER LUZON INTO A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD INFLOW,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A WELL DEFINED LLCC THAT HAS RE-
DEVELOPED TO THE SURFACE. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND
A 072209Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT TS 02W HAS REFORMED THE LLCC
ON THE LEESIDE OF LUZON AND BASED ON THIS DATA JTWC HAS RESUMED
WARNINGS ON TS 02W. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION RE-
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY PROVIDING A STRONG INFLOW TO THE LLCC IN THAT
QUADRANT, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM COASTAL FUNNELING OF THE
SURFACE WINDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TS
02W TRACKING TO THE EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF TS 02W...(more)

>> CHAN-HOM, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 08 MAY: 17.6N 123.8E / ENE @ 15 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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