Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SANVU [03W]

for Friday, 25 May 2012 [7:23 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on SANVU (03W).

SANVU MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON SANVU [03W/1202]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 25 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon SANVU (03W) weakens as it moves NNE...approaching Iwo To.

Residents and visitors along the Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of SANVU (03W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri May 25 2012
Location of Center: 23.4º N Lat 139.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 218 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 457 km SSW of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 490 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 797 km NW of Agrihan, CNMI
Distance 5: 1,230 km NNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 6: 1,862 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 600 km (323 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri May 25

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SANVU is expected to move NE for the next 24 hours, and will accelerate on the same track through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of SANVU will pass over or very close to Iwo To early Saturday and will be well to the East of Chichi Jima by early Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. SANVU is still forecast to slightly intensify tonight before it weakens. This system will start transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone on Sunday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). SANVU is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 600 kilometers (323 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to move away from Iwo To with little change of strength [2PM MAY 26: 25.6N 142.8E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it moves farther away from Iwo To...becoming Extratropical [2PM MAY 27: 28.8N 147.7E @ 110kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Extratropical status...accelerating across the open seas [2PM MAY 28: 33.1N 154.6E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Iwo To...and over Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands on Saturday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bonin and chichi Jima Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of SANVU (03W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Marianas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY SANVU (03W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: SANVU's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SANVU (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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