Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SANVU [03W]

for Wednesday, 23 May 2012 [2:27 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on SANVU (03W).

SANVU MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM SANVU [03W/1202]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 23 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm SANVU (03W) intensifying steadily...outer rainbands just affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands.

Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana, Iwo To & Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of SANVU (03W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed May 23 2012
Location of Center: 16.9º N Lat 140.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 547 km WNW of Anatahan, CNMI
Distance 2: 568 km WSW of Alamagan, CNMI
Distance 3: 576 km WSW of Agrihan, CNMI
Distance 4: 587 km WNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 5: 585 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 6: 596 km NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 7: 882 km SSW of Iwo To
Distance 8: 1,914 km ESE of Northern Luzon, PHL
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 1-10 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed May 23

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SANVU is expected to move NNW to Northward for the next 12 to 24 hours, and recurve NNE to NE-ward through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of SANVU will pass very close to Iwo To by late Friday night.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. SANVU is forecast to become a Typhoon on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. SANVU is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Typhoon...turns poleward (North), heads for Iwo To [8AM MAY 24: 19.3N 139.4E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Still intensifying as it recurves northeastward...approaching Iwo To [8AM MAY 25: 22.2N 139.9E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm after passing very close to Iwo To...becoming Extratropical [8AM MAY 26: 25.4N 143.1E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - still affecting & spreading across the Northernmost portion of the Mariana Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands today (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of SANVU (03W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Iwo To beginning Thursday. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Marianas, Iwo To and Chichi Jima. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS SANVU (03W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: SANVU's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
____________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS SANVU (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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