Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SANVU [03W]

for Wednesday, 23 May 2012 [5:38 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on SANVU (03W).

SANVU MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM SANVU [03W/1202]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 23 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm SANVU (03W) has gained more strength overnight as it turns northwestward...Outer rainbands receding away from the Northern Mariana Islands.

Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana, Iwo To & Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of SANVU (03W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed May 23 2012
Location of Center: 16.1º N Lat 141.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 449 km West of Anatahan, CNMI
Distance 2: 471 km WNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 473 km NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 531 km SW of Agrihan, FSM
Distance 5: 684 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 6: 967 km South of Iwo To
Distance 7: 2,049 km East of Luzon, PHL
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 1-10 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed May 23

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SANVU is expected to continue moving NW for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more northerly on Friday and recurving NNE to NE-ward on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of SANVU will pass very close to Iwo To by early Saturday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. SANVU is forecast to continue intensifying and will likely become a Typhoon on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. SANVU is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: At near-Typhoon intensity as it turns NNW, heads for Iwo To [2AM MAY 24: 18.6N 139.8E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded into a Typhoon (Category 1) tracks Northward...approaching Iwo To [2AM MAY 25: 21.6N 139.8E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to recurve towards the NNE and weaken (becoming Extratropical)...passing very close to Iwo To. [2AM MAY 26: 24.6N 141.8E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - now over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its easternmost part affecting & spreading across the Northern Mariana Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands today (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of SANVU (03W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Marianas today, and along Iwo To beginning Thursday. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the rest of Marianas, Iwo To and Chichi Jima. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS SANVU (03W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: SANVU's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_______________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
____________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS SANVU (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm