Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SANVU [03W]

for Tuesday, 22 May 2012 [11:45 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on SANVU (03W).

SANVU MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM SANVU [03W/1202]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 22 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm 03W has been officially named as SANVU - a chinese name for coral (issued by Macau), as it continues to intensify while passing close to Guam...now starting to move away. Strong winds and rains continues to affect the Northern Mariana Islands.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of SANVU (03W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue May 22 2012
Location of Center: 13.7º N Lat 143.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 121 km WNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 168 km WSW of Rota, CNMI
Distance 3: 272 km SW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 4: 768 km NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 5: 940 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 6: 2,085 km East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue May 22

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SANVU is expected to move NW to NNW for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more northerly on Thurday and recurving NNE-ward on Friday. On the forecast track, the core of SANVU will pass well to the west of Agrihan Island on Thursday, and approaching the island of Iwo To on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. SANVU is forecast to continue intensifying and will likely become a Typhoon Thursday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. SANVU is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: At near-Typhoon intensity while moving NNW-ward, about 395 km West of Anatahan Island [8AM MAY 23: 16.5N 141.9E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Upgraded into a Typhoon (Category 1) as it turns Northward...about 514 km South of Iwo To [8AM MAY 24: 20.2N 140.8E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Starts to recurve towards the NNE as it approaches Iwo To...becoming an Extratropical Cyclone. [8AM MAY 25: 23.5N 141.8E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Guam. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Southern and Northern Mariana Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands tonight and tomorrow (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of 03W (Unnamed). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Marianas today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the rest of Marianas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS SANVU (03W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: SANVU's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SANVU (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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