Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS 03W [Unnamed]

for Tuesday, 22 May 2012 [7:45 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 03W (UNNAMED).

03W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 03W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 22 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

03W (Unnamed) rapidly gained strength...now a Tropical Storm...currently passing close to the SW of Guam and the Northern Marianas. Rains with gusty winds continuing across the commonwealth state.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 03W (Unnamed).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue May 22 2012
Location of Center: 12.6º N Lat 144.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 104 km SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 193 km SSW of Rota, CNMI
Distance 3: 326 km SSW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 4: 759 km NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 5: 1,010 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 6: 2,062 km East of Northern Visayas, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Northern Marianas
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue May 22

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

03W (Unnamed) is expected to continue moving NW for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more northerly through early Friday. On the forecast track, the core of 03W will pass close to the west of Guam today, passing well to the west of Saipan by early Wednesday morning. This system will be just to the west of Agrihan Island by early Thursday, and approaching the island of Iwo To on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 03W is forecast to continue intensifying and will likely become a Typhoon on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 25 kilometers (13 nautical miles) from the center. 03W (Unnamed) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying at near-typhoon strength while moving NW-ward, about 367 km WNW of Saipan [2AM MAY 23: 15.6N 142.3E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded into a Typhoon as it turns more NNW to Northward...remain over open seas [2AM MAY 24: 19.1N 140.9E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it nears Iwo To Island. [2AM MAY 25: 23.1N 141.6E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Guam. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Southern and Northern Mariana Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands tonight and tomorrow (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of 03W (Unnamed). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Marianas today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the rest of Marianas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS 03W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 03W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
____________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 03W (Unnamed)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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