Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SANVU [03W]

for Thursday, 24 May 2012 [7:30 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 22 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on SANVU (03W).

SANVU MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON SANVU [03W/1202]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 24 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon SANVU (03W) has started moving north...threatens Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands.

Residents and visitors along the Iwo To & Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of SANVU (03W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu May 24 2012
Location of Center: 20.3º N Lat 138.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 407 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 558 km SSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 724 km WNW of Agrihan, CNMI
Distance 4: 809 km SSW of Chichi Jima
Distance 5: 982 km NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 6: 1,760 km East of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Avg]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu May 24

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SANVU is expected to continue tracking northward to NNE for the next 24 hours, and accelerate more to towards the NE through Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of SANVU will pass close to Iwo To on Saturday and will be just to the East of Chichi Jima on Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. SANVU is forecast to slightly intensify until Friday before losing strength. This system will start transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone on Sunday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). SANVU is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it starts recurving toward Iwo To [2PM MAY 25: 22.7N 139.6E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it moves away from Iwo To [2PM MAY 26: 24.7N 142.1E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to weaken while over the open Western Pacific Ocean...becoming Extratropical [2PM MAY 27: 27.5N 146.2E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands today.
OUTER RAINBANDS - now affecting & spreading across Iwo To. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands today (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 230 mm (high) along areas near the center of SANVU (03W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Marianas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY SANVU (03W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: SANVU's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SANVU (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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