Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NEOGURI (AMBO) to make landfall over Western Guangdong this PM... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON NEOGURI [AMBO/02W/0801]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 19 APRIL 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 020
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON NEOGURI (AMBO) WEAKENS TO CATEGORY ONE AS IT APPROACHES THE

SHORELINE OF WESTERN GUANGDONG...THREATENS HONG KONG AND MACAU.

HONG KONG UNDER STRONG WIND SIGNAL NUMBER THREE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NEOGURI is expected to continue moving NE'ly,

weakening further into a storm and make landfall over Western Guang-

dong or about 100 km. West of Macau this afternoon (approx 3-4 PM HK

time). The dissipating core (eye & eyewall) of this system shall make

its closest point approach (CPA) to Hong Kong at around 11 PM to 12

midnight tonight with a distance of 115 km. to the NE. NEOGURI is

forecast to disspate just NE of Hong Kong by tomorrow afternoon,

April 20th.

+ EFFECTS: NEOGURI's shrinking circulation is now in between the

coasts of Hainan and Western Guangdong. The inner bands of this

typhoon has left eastern Hainan and is now spreading across Western

Guangdong, with its disorganized Northern Eyewall just along the

shores of Western Guangdong. Moderate to heavy rains accompanied with

tropical storm force winds reaching 100 km/hr can be expected along

Western Guangdong, Macau & Hong Kong this morning, increasing to mi-

nimal Typhoon force winds in the afternoon through the evening. Mean-

while, Its outer bands continues to spread across much of Southern

China. These bands will continue to bring widespread rains & thun-

derstorms with light to moderate winds across the area today. Dete-

riorating weather conditions can be expected tonight until tomorrow

as the typhoon makes landfall over Western Guangdong. People living

in low-lying areas of Southern China particularly Western Guangdong,

Macau & Hong Kong must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due

to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this storm. Precau-

tionary measures must be fully implemented. Coastal Storm Surge floo-

ding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and

dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of

NEOGURI's projected path particularly on where the center makes

landfall in Western Guangdong. Minimal damage is possible on this

type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible along

coastal areas of Hainan & Southern China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 APRIL
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.4º N...LONGITUDE 111.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 275 KM (148 NM) SW OF MACAU, CHINA

DISTANCE 2: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF HONG KONG, CHINA

DISTANCE 3: 170 KM (92 NM) SE OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA

DISTANCE 4: 160 KM (85 NM) ENE OF HAIKOU, HAINAN IS.

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN GUANGDONG
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT APRIL 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 APRIL: 21.6N 112.5E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 APRIL: 23.1N 113.4E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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