Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NEOGURI (AMBO) heads for Hainan... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI [AMBO/02W/0801]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 16 APRIL 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (AMBO) HAS LEFT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPON-

SIBILITY (PAR)...NOW ACCELERATING N0RTHWESTWARD, THREATENING THE ISLAND

OF HAINAN AND THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF VIETNAM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NEOGURI is expected to continue moving NW'ly across

the South China Sea within the next 24 to 36 hours. This system shall

become a Typhoon as it nears the shores of Hainan Island by early Fri-

day morning (Apr 18). It shall enter the Gulf of Tonkin Friday after-

noon, passing very close to Western Hainan. NEOGURI is forecast to

weaken and turn North before recurving towards the NE, making landfall

along the Vietnam-Southern China (Western Guangdong) border on early

Sunday morning, Apr 20.

+ EFFECTS: NEOGURI's circulation has become more compact and remains

concentrated across the South China Sea, with its outerbands now

spreading across Vietnam. These bands will continue to bring wide-

spread rains with light to moderate winds across the area. People

living in low-lying areas of Vietnam must seek higher grounds for

possible flooding due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about

by this storm. Precautionary measures must be implemented.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 16 APRIL
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.1º N...LONGITUDE 113.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 650 KM (350 NM) NW OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 780 KM (420 NM) WSW OF MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 3: 735 KM (397 NM) SE OF SANYA, HAINAN ISLAND

DISTANCE 4: 700 KM (378 NM) SE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: HAINAN ISLAND
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 705 KM (380 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED APRIL 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - NOW LOWERED.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 APRIL: 14.1N 112.6E / 95-120 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 17 APRIL: 15.3N 111.2E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 APRIL: 17.2N 109.1E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 13 KPH
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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