Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NEOGURI (AMBO) moving slowly towards Hainan... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON NEOGURI [AMBO/02W/0801]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 17 APRIL 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 012
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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NEOGURI (AMBO) BECOMES THE FIRST TYPHOON OF THE 2008 NORTHWEST PACIFIC

SEASON...INTENSIFYING FURTHER OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHILE CREEPING
TOWARDS THE ISLAND OF HAINAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NEOGURI is expected to maintain its NNW'ly movement

across the South China Sea within the next 24 to 36 hours. The core

(eye & eyewall) of this system shall make landfall over Southeastern

Hainan tomorrow afternoon, weakening into a Tropical Storm as it emerges

over Gulf of Tonkin by Saturday morning. The 2 to 4-day forecast shows

NEOGURI moving on a NNE'ly track, making its final landfall along the

Southern Coast of China or off Western Guangdong on Saturday afternoon,

April 19 and dissipating over mainland China on Sunday, Apr 20th.

+ EFFECTS: NEOGURI's strong circulation has shrunked and became compact

while moving slowly over the South China Sea. Its outer bands remains

along the eastern shorelines of Hainan, Eastern Vietnam and Southern

China. These bands will continue to bring widespread rains with light

to moderate winds across the area. Deteriorating weather conditions can

be expected tomorrow until Saturday as the typhoon's inner bands moves

closer to Hainan and Southern China. People living in low-lying areas

of Hainan and Southern China must seek higher grounds for possible

flooding due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this storm.

Precautionary measures must be implemented. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous

battering waves can be expected near and to the north of NEOGURI's pro-

jected path particularly on where the center makes landfall in Hainan.

Moderate damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched

storm surge is also possible along coastal areas of Eastern Vietnam &

Southern China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 17 APRIL
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.0º N...LONGITUDE 112.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 450 KM (242 NM) SE OF SANYA, HAINAN ISLAND

DISTANCE 2: 435 KM (235 NM) ESE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM

DISTANCE 3: 495 KM (267 NM) SSE OF QIONGHAI, VIETNAM

DISTANCE 4: 720 KM (388 NM) SSE OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA

DISTANCE 5: 815 KM (440 NM) SSW OF MACAU, CHINA
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: HAINAN ISLAND
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG-LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME THU APRIL 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 APRIL: 15.9N 111.7E / 160-195 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 APRIL: 17.0N 111.1E / 150-185 KPH / NNW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 APRIL: 19.7N 110.3E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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