Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Friday, June 20, 2008

Typhoon FENGSHEN (FRANK) to hit Northern Samar this PM... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TYPHOON FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 20 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 006 / SATFIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

FENGSHEN (FRANK) RAPIDLY BECOMES THE 5TH TYPHOON OF 2008...APPROACHING

THE EASTERN COAST OF SAMAR...TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN SAMAR THIS

AFTERNOON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to reached its peak of 130 km/hr

before making landfall over Northern Samar approx 2 AM tomorrow morning

and shall pass very close to Catarman before moving into Albay Gulf around

8 AM tomorrow. The Eye shall make landfall over Catanduanes around 4 PM

tomorrow and pass over or very close to Virac. FENGSHEN is forecast to

maintain minimal typhoon status while crossing Catanduanes tomorrow. Its

closest point of approach to Naga City will be around 8-9 PM with a dis-

tance of 110 km to the NE. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the

typhoon turning NNW across the open waters of the Philippine Sea on Sunday,

June 22. An alternate scenario (based on ECMWF Model) shows FENGSHEN

continuing WNW-ward & passing in between Camarines Provinces and

Catanduanes Island.

+ EFFECTS: The Eye and EyeWall of FENGSHEN is now along the eastern coast

of Samar and is likely to move across Northern Samar later today. Its inner

bands is now spreading across the whole of Samar and Siargao Island. Strong

winds of up to 85 km/hr with moderate to heavy rains along the inner bands.

Meanwhile, the provinces of Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, the whole of Visayas

and Northern Mindanao are now under the effects of FENGSHEN's outer (rain)

bands. Moderate to heavy rains with winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be

expected today. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay

& of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible

LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert

as moderate to heavy rains associated by this typhoon are likely to prevail

beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for

possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be implemented today.

Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along

with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the

north of FRANK's projected path particularly on where the center makes

landfall in Northern Samar & Northern Bicol tonight and tomorrow. Minimal

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is possible along coastal areas of Eastern Philippines with surf reaching

2-3 feet at most.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Eastern Samar: 2PM today until 11PM tonight.
+ Northern Samar: 8PM tonight until 5AM tomorrow.
+ Coastal Sorsogon-Albay: 2PM tomorrow until 8PM tomorrow.
+ Catanduanes: 10AM tomorrow until 4AM Sunday.
+ Lagonoy Gulf-Caramoan Peninsula: 3PM tomorrow 3AM Sunday.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) 20 JUNE
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 11.2º N...LONGITUDE 126.9º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 170 KM (92 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 2: 290 KM (157 NM) SE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 390 KM (210 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 415 KM (225 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 450 KM (245 NM) SE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 480 KM (260 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN SAMAR-BICOL REGION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME FRI JUNE 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - SAMAR PROVINCES.

#02 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN IS., DINAGAT
IS., SIARGAO IS.

#01 - CAMARINES SUR, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., MASBATE, TICAO IS., NORTHERN
CEBU, BOHOL, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL NORTE & CAMIGUIN IS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.3N 126.1E / 130-160 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 12.3N 125.1E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 14.5N 124.0E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE: 17.5N 124.4E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE POSITION: 10.7N 127.6E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191000Z SSMI IMAGE
DEPICTED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK...(more).

>> FENGSHEN {pronounced: feng~shen}, meaning: God of Wind.
Name contributed by: China.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.0N 127.4E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY FENGSHEN (FRANK)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Thursday, June 19, 2008

TS FENGSHEN (FRANK) now threatens Samar-Bicol... [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 19 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004 / SATFIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN (FRANK) INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY...NOW PACKING

1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KM/HR...THREATENS SAMAR AND BICOL

PROVINCES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to continue moving WNW to NW'ly

within the next 24 hours, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow afternoon

(June 20). The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the potential typhoon

turning Northward while about 350-400 km East of the Bicol Region by Satu-

rday morning, June 21 w/ forecast wind speed of 150 km/hr. It shall then

accelerate, recurving towards the NNE to NE while moving across the open

waters of the Philippine Sea from Sunday until Tuesday (June 22-24). An

alternate scenario (based on ECMWF Model) shows FENGSHEN continuing NW-

ward & passing approximately 100 to 200 km to the East of Catanduanes

Island on Saturday, June 21st.

+ EFFECTS: The outer (rain) bands of FENGSHEN now spreading across the

whole of Visayas and Mindanao. The outer bands shall reach the Bicol

Peninsula tomorrow morning. Widespread rains & thunderstorms, with winds

of up to 50 km/hr can be expected along these outer bands. Meanwhile,

FENGSHEN's inner bands remain along the Philippine Sea and may start

affecting the Bicol Region & Samar Provinces tomorrow evening. Strong

winds of up to 75 km/hr with moderate to heavy rains can be expected once

the inner bands arrives. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano

in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas

where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located

must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this cloudiness

are likely to prevail beginning tomorrow evening. Residents in low-lying

areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to

the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary

measures must be implemented beginning tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon remains weak, but

may be enhanced by FENSGHEN by tomorrow or Saturday. If the monsoon

starts, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao will be the first areas to

get affected. Cloudy skies with light to moderate passing rains & SW'ly

winds not exceeding 40 km/hr may be expected. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect

the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas. Strong

ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Philippines - may continue

to bring scattered rains and chances of scattered thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) 19 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.6º N...LONGITUDE 128.8º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 370 KM (200 NM) ENE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 385 KM (208 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 420 KM (227 NM) ESE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 590 KM (320 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 620 KM (335 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 695 KM (375 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME THU JUNE 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - SAMAR & LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLAND, SURIGAO DEL NORTE,

DINAGAT ISLAND, SIARGAO ISLAND, SURIGAO DEL SUR & AGUSAN
DEL NORTE.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.2N 128.7E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 12.1N 128.0E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 14.9N 127.6E / 160-195 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JUNE: 17.5N 128.3E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 10.2N 130.0E.
^DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD AND ORGANIZE AROUND A MUCH-
IMPROVED AND BETTER-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE POLEWARD SIDE
OF THE STORM, AND FORMATIVE BANDING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND WRAP INTO THE TIGHTENED LLCC. TS 07W HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AT AN INCREASED RATE DUE TO
WELL-ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; IN ADDITION TO THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ESTABLISHED BY THE TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALSO REMAINED LOW OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL...(more).

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 19 JUNE: 10.1N 130.0E / NW @ 15 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS FENGSHEN (FRANK)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS 07W (FRANK) - Update #001

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL STORM 07W [FRANK]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 19 JUNE 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM 07W (FRANK) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA.
THREATENS EASTERN VISAYAS AND BICOL REGION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 07W is expected to continue tracking WNW to NW'ly

within the next 24 to 36 hours, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow

afternoon (June 20). The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the poten-

tial typhoon turning Northward while about 400 km East of the Bicol Region

on Saturday early morning, June 21 w/ forecast wind speed of 140 km/hr. It

shall then accelerate, recurving towards the NNE to NE across the open

waters of the Philippine Sea, without touching the Eastern Coast of the

Philippines from Sunday until early Tuesday morning (June 22-24).

+ EFFECTS: The outer (rain) bands of 07W is now affecting Surigao and

Northern Mindanao and shall reach Eastern Visayas later today. Widespread

rains & thunderstorms, with winds of up to 40 km/hr can be expected along

these outer bands. Throughout the weekend, these bands may be affecting

the Bicol Region. People living in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds

for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.8º N...LONGITUDE 131.3º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 635 KM (343 NM) EAST OF SURIGAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 675 KM (365 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 3: 710 KM (385 NM) ESE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 870 KM (470 NM) SE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 905 KM (488 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 980 KM (530 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME THU JUNE 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE: 10.5N 130.6E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 11.6N 129.4E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 14.0N 128.2E / 140-165 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 16.8N 128.7E / 150-185 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 9.7N 131.9E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 6 PM JUNE 18 SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH AN ELONG-
ATED LLCC. AN 5:01 PM JUNE 18 QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER WITH MULTIPLE UNFLAGGED 25-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN QUADRANTS SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO TD STATUS. UPPER AIR
DATA ALSO SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING 20-27
KNOTS IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET WITHIN 120-240 NM OF THE CENTER...
(more).

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 MAY: 9.4N 131.8E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 07W (FRANK)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008

T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week June 17-30, 2008]

Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook

Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 17 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 24 JUNE
_____________________________________________________________________________

Week One (1) Forecast: JUNE 17-23, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]

[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across Luzon, Visayas &
Mindanao. Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of the Madden-
Julian Oscillation's (MJO) weak Wet-Phase, onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon,
ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Favorable conditions exist for the formation of Tropical Disturbance 94W
(LPA) into a Tropical Cyclone east of the Philippines (Philippine Sea). Active
convection & increasingly more prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of
this region are expected to gradually lead to more favorable conditions for
Tropical Cyclone development. Confidence: STRONG.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week Two (2) Forecast: JUNE 24-30, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]

[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across the Philippines. Wet
conditions are expected in this area as a result of the onset of the Southwest (SW)
Monsoon, ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: LOW.

[2] Continued favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the
South China Sea, East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea) & Western Pacific
Ocean. Prevailing convection and prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward
of this region are expected to lead to continued favorable conditions for Tropical
Cyclone development. Confidence: LOW.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook week.

> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday.

> The next outlook will be issued on Tuesday, June 24, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.
_____________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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