Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD AURING weakens... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 06 JANUARY 2009
Source: JMA 18Z WARNING FOR HIGH SEAS / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT IS NOW TURNING

WESTWARD...THREATENS SAMAR-BICOL. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING

ACROSS LUZON, BICOL REGION AND VISAYAS.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
of AURING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is now expected to move West to WSW for the
next 24 hours and weaken further. The strong High Pressure Steering Ridge

has pushed the system into this new direction. It shall be off the Northern
Coast of Northern Samar tomorrow morning.

+ EFFECTS: AURING's circulation has become more compact to the east of
Bicol Region. Its convective rain bands is expected to bring widespread
rains with heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 50 kph across the eas-

tern coast of Bicol and Samar today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75

up to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumula-

tions of up to 200 mm near the center of AURING. Residents in low-lying
areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible
life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anti-

cipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides

can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon, Visayas, Bicol

Region and Northern Mindanao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
continues to affect Luzon, & Visayas becoming more intense across
Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Clear to cloudy
skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and off" rainshowers &
NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will prevail on these areas for
the next 24 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) TUE 06 JAN 2009
LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 13.1º N...LONGITUDE 128.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 375 KM (202 NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 2: 430 KM (232 NM) ENE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 460 KM (248 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 520 KM (280 NM) EAST OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 575 KM (310 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 60 KM/HR (33 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1004 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SAMAR-BICOL AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 300 KM (160 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 AM MANILA TIME TUE JAN 06
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 13.0N 126.9E

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 12.8N 125.5E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JANUARY POSITION: 13.0N 129.0E.

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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