Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD AURING

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009
Source: PAGASA WARNING FOR SHIPPING #009 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) HEADING NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER

LUZON, BICOL REGION AND VISAYAS.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
of AURING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to continue moving NE in the

direction of the Central Philippine Sea and away from the Philippines.

*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that AURING shall

track-back to the West to WSW tomorrow and cross Bicol-Samar area on

Wednesday. This scenario is likely if the developing High Pressure

Steering Ridge off Taiwan strengthens and becomes the dominant

factor - bringing strong surge of NE Monsoon which will steer

AURING.

+ EFFECTS: AURING's circulation continues to consolidate to the east

of Bicol Region. Its convective rain bands is expected to bring

widespread rains with heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph

across the eastern coast of Bicol and Samar today. 1-day rainfall
accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands.
..with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of
AURING. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain
alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated

if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected

along the beach-front areas of Luzon, Visayas, Bicol Region and
Northern Mindanao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
continues to affect Luzon, & Visayas becoming more intense across
Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Clear to cloudy
skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and off" rainshowers &
NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will prevail on these areas for
the next 24 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 05 JAN 2009
LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 13.7º N...LONGITUDE 128.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 435 KM (235 NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 2: 465 KM (250 NM) ENE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 475 KM (256 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 545 KM (295 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 595 KM (322 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 PM MANILA TIME MON JAN 05
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 16.8N 131.8E

2 PM (06 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 20.5N 136.5E

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JANUARY POSITION: 13.5N 128.3E.

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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