Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD AURING threatens Visayas-Bicol Area [Update #001]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 04 JANUARY 2009
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #003 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE PHILIPPINE

SEA...CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY EAST OF LEYTE GULF AS ITS

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION (CONVECTIVE RAIN CLOUDS) DRIFTED NORTHWARD. ITS

EXPOSED (CLOUDLESS) LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS NEAR 9.0N
128.2 OR OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO.

*Residents and visitors along Visayas, Bicol Region & Northern Mindanao should closely monitor

the progress of AURING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to move WNW slowly in the

direction of Eastern Visayas...passing over Leyte early tomorrow

morning...over the northern tip of Cebu early Tuesday morning...

and shall be off the coast of Northern Panay, just east of Boracay

on early Wednesday morning, Jan 7th.

+ EFFECTS: AURING's low-level and mid-level circulation remains dis-

organized near the coast of Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas.

Its convection rain bands is expected to bring widespread rains with

heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph across Samar and Leyte

Provinces today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is

possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to

200 mm near the center of AURING. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threate-

ning flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be

expected along the beach-front areas of Visayas and along the beach

front areas of Bicol Region and Northern Mindanao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon continues

to affect Eastern Philippines, from Cagayan down to Bicol Region.

Clear to cloudy skies with possible passing "on and off" rainshowers

& NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr is likely to prevail on these

areas for a couple of days.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) SUN 04 JAN 2009
LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 10.0º N...LONGITUDE 126.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 135 KM (72 NM) ENE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 230 KM (125 NM) SSE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 235 KM (127 NM) SE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 310 KM (167 NM) ESE OF CEBU CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 550 KM (297 NM) SSE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 04 KM/HR (02 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN VISAYAS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 AM MANILA TIME SUN JAN 04
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JANUARY: 10.6N 125.2E

2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 11.3N 123.7E

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 12.0N 122.3E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 JANUARY POSITION: 10.0N 126.8E.

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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