Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD AURING heading North...threat to Bicol remains [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #007 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD...REMAINS

A THREAT TO BICOL REGION. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON AFFECTING NCR,

LUZON, BICOL AND VISAYAS.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
of AURING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to continue moving North to NNE

in the direction of the Central Philippine Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium

forecast shows the depression recurving NE across the open waters of

the Central Philippine Sea as a developing frontal system off Taiwan

is expected to absorb the depression.

+ EFFECTS: AURING's circulation has become broad over the Philippine

Sea with multiple circulation centers located within the system. Its

convective rain bands is expected to bring widespread rains with heavy

squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph across Eastern Samar today.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its

rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the

center of AURING. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must

remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated

if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected

along the beach-front areas of Visayas and along the beach front areas

of Bicol Region and Northern Mindanao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
continues to affect Metro Manila, Luzon, & Visayas becoming more

intense across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

Clear to cloudy skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and

off" rainshowers & NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will

prevail on these areas for the next 24 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) MON 05 JAN 2009
LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 12.9º N...LONGITUDE 126.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 280 KM (150 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 210 KM (113 NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 245 KM (132 NM) ESE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH

DISTANCE 4: 335 KM (182 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 395 KM (215 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 AM MANILA TIME MON JAN 05
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 15.4N 127.4E

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 18.0N 129.4E

2 AM (18 GMT) 08 JANUARY: 19.7N 130.8E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JANUARY POSITION: 12.5N 126.6E.

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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