Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Thursday, October 31, 2013

TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #007

for Thursday, 31 October 2013 [2:04 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Thursday 31 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 31 October 2013

KROSA (VINTA) almost a Typhoon as it moved quickly closer to Extreme Northern Luzon. Its outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of Eastern Luzon including the Bicol Region.

This storm will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and gusty winds across Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas tonight through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 pm today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 375 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 410 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Cagayan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 550 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will be approaching the eastern coast of Extreme Northern Luzon by Thursday afternoon...and will make landfall over the eastern shores of Cagayan around or after sunset Thursday. Krosa will cross Extreme Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte by early Friday morning. On late Saturday afternoon, the storm will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way towards Hainan Island Area.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 140 km/hr on Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Starting to cross Extreme Northern Luzon as it makes landfall over Cagayan...about 50 km southwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM OCT 31: 18.2N 121.8E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...reintensifies...after losing strength slightly while crossing Extreme Northern Luzon...about 385 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM NOV 01: 18.7N 117.0E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...continues to intensify...about 330 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8PM NOV 02: 19.3N 113.5E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas:Northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The Coastal and Beachfront areas of Eastern Luzon from Batanes down to Bicol Peninsula (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 17.4º N Lat 125.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 410 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 435 km E of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 435 km E of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 570 km ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: Cagayan
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Cagayan: Halloween Night (Thu) [between 6PM-8PM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013

TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #006

for Wednesday, 30 October 2013 [7:26 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 31 October 2013

Tropical Storm KROSA (VINTA) has gained more strength and continues to threaten Northern Luzon particularly Isabela and Cagayan as it moves closer to the area.

This storm will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 540 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 615 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 20 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will move across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea by Thursday afternoon...approaching the eastern coast of Isabela...and will make landfall over the eastern shores of Cagayan by early Thursday evening. Krosa will cross Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte early Friday morning.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday afternoon just before it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 km/hr on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to a typhoon (Category 1) as it approaches the east coast of Cagayan...about 110 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM OCT 31: 17.9N 123.0E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...reintensifies...after losing strength slightly while crossing Northern Luzon...about 320 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM NOV 01: 18.5N 117.6E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...as it gained more strength...about 375 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [2PM NOV 02: 18.9N 113.4E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern-central part of the Central Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern-central part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 17.0º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 540 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 615 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 615 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 650 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 780 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

NOTE:

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #005

for Wednesday, 30 October 2013 [1:11 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013

Tropical Storm KROSA (VINTA) has accelerated and slightly gained strength during the past 6 hours...maintains its threat to Northern Luzon particularly Isabela and Cagayan.

This storm will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas beginning today through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 630 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 760 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will move across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea by Thursday morning...approaching the eastern coast of Isabela and Cagayan Thursday afternoon...and will make landfall just to the east of Tuguegarao City by early Thursday evening. Krosa will cross Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte early Friday morning.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 24 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday morning before it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 km/hr on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a typhoon (Category 1) as it approaches the east coast of Isabela and Cagayan...about 215 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [8AM OCT 31: 17.3N 124.4E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Over the Western Philippine Sea...losing strength slightly after crossing Northern Luzon...about 170 km west-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM NOV 01: 18.0N 119.0E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...out of PAR...as it reintesified rapidly into a typhoon (Category 1)...about 425 km south of Hong Kong, China [8AM NOV 02: 18.4N 114.4E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: northern-central part of the Central Philippine Sea.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: northern-central part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 120 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 16.6º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 630 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 760 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 780 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 805 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 910 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

NOTE:

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #004

for Wednesday, 30 October 2013 [7:44 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013

29W (VINTA) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) and is now internationally known as KROSA (a Cambodian word for a crane)...maintains its threat to Northern Luzon particularly Isabela and Cagayan.

This storm will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas beginning today through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 755 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 905 km east of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will move across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea by early Thursday morning...approaching the eastern coast of Isabela and Cagayan Thursday afternoon...and will make landfall just to the east of Tuguegarao City by early Thursday evening. Krosa will cross Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte early Friday morning.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 24 to 36 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday afternoon just before it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 km/hr on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to near-typhoon strength as it approaches the east coast of Isabela and Cagayan...about 340 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2AM OCT 31: 17.1N 125.6E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Ilocos Norte...losing strength after crossing Northern Luzon...about 35 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM NOV 01: 18.1N 120.3E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...exits PAR as it gained strength...about 470 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM NOV 02: 18.4N 116.2E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern and southern part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 16.4º N Lat 130.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 755 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 905 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 920 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 955 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1035 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)