Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Sunday, August 08, 2010

TD 96W [ESTER] - Update #03

for Sunday, 08 August 2010 [6:59 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 96W (ESTER).

96W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 08 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) drfting poleward...threatens Yaeyama, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Monsoon rains (aka. "Habagat") continuing across Luzon & Western Visayas including Palawan & Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, & Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 08 2010
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km (160 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 465 km (250 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 485 km (262 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 645 km (348 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Yaeyama-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #003 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Aug 08

+ Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to turn more to the NNE for the next 6 to 24 hours and accelerate slightly in the direction of Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Area. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea and continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon across the Philippines. Its outer bands continues to affect the Extreme Northern Islands of Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 45 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN-CENTRAL-WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS, MASBATE & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 55 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Weak Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1003 MB) almost stationary over the South China Sea, close to Hainan Island. Located near lat 18.0N lon 112.0E...or about 910 km West of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists):
*N/A...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 96W (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Saturday, August 07, 2010

TD 96W [ESTER] - Update #02

for Saturday, 07 August 2010 [6:36 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-developed TD 96W (ESTER).

96W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 07 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) standstill east of Batanes...its center remains north of its intense rain convection. Monsoon rains (aka. "Habagat") continues to prevail across Luzon & Western Visayas including Palawan & Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes & Ilocos Provinces should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 23 2010
Location of Center: 20.7º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 350 km (190 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 395 km (213 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 475 km (255 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 735 km (397 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #002 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Aug 07

+ Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to remain quasi-stationary for the next 6 hours and then track NW to NNW slowly for the next 24 hours in the direction of Taiwan's Eastern Coast. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea and continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon across the Philippines. Its outer bands continues to affect NE Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 45 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group, Coastal Northern Cagayan & Ilocos Norte. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN-CENTRAL-WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS, MASBATE & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 50 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Weak Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) drifting WNW across the South China Sea, closer to Hainan Island. Located near lat 18.0N lon 113.0E...or about 805 km West of Laoag City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 20 kph. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, NORTHERN ISABELA, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists):
*N/A...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000 TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Messages in this topic (1)

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Tropical Depression (TD) 96W [ESTER] - Update #01

for Saturday, 07 August 2010 [1:07 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat August 07 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-developed TD 96W (ESTER).

96W (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96W [ESTER]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 07 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 96W (ESTER) upgraded from a Low Pressure Area this morning -- has been relocated to the north as latest visible satellite photo reveals its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) 100 km. to the north of its deep rain-cloud convection...still quasi-stationary over the Northern Philippine Sea. Southwest Monsoon (aka. "Habagat" in Tagalog) being pulled by this system, affecting the western areas of the Philippines.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands, Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes & Ilocos Provinces should closely monitor the progress of 96W (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 23 2010
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 420 km (227 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 485 km (263 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 710 km (385 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #001 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Sat Aug 07

+ Forecast Outlook: 96W is expected to remain quasi-stationary for the next 6 to 12 hours and then track NW slowly for the next 24 hours. A developing disturbance (LPA 98W) over South China Sea has interacted with 96W causing the latter to remain Quasi-stationary w/ a possible northward movement. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: 96W's circulation is currently over the Northern Philippine Sea. Its outer bands continues to affect NE Luzon - moderate to strong winds of up to 40 kph w/ occasional rains can be expected along Calayan Islands, Balintang Channel, Batanes & Babuyan Group, Coastal Northern Cagayan & Ilocos Norte. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains or showers can be expected along the following affected areas: ZAMBALES, BATAAN, METRO MANILA, WESTERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 45 kph) can be expected along these areas. Large ocean waves of 7 to 8 feet along the beach-front areas of the affected areas are likely to occur today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) drifting West across the South China Sea...currently located near lat 16.5N lon 114.6E...or about 610 km West of La Union...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving West slowly. This system has a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, APAYAO, KALINGA, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, NORTHERN ISABELA, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS.

External Links for TD 96W (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists):
*N/A...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________