Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Typhoon CHAN-HOM (EMONG) intensifying...endangers Pangasinan-La Union [Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TYPHOON CHAN-HOM [EMONG/02W/0902]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) THU 07 MAY 2009
Source: US JTWC WARNING #015/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for supplemental information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (EMONG) GATHERING STRENGTH AS IT DANGEROUSLY ACCELE-
RATES CLOSER TO PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA. PANGASINAN AND LA UNION
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DAGUPAN AND SAN FERNANDO MUST BE ON FULL
ALERT AS IT REMAINS UNDER SERIOUS THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.

*Residents and visitors along Western & Central & Northern Luzon including Metro Manila
should closely monitor the progress of CHAN-HOM.

**Important Note: This typhoon is similar in strength and track of last year's TYPHOON COSME (HALONG)
which passed over Pangasinan on May 17, 2008 resulting in loss of properties and lives.
Click here to view track of COSME.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHAN-HOM is expected to continue moving on a
generally ENE to NE track for the next 2 days, may still intensify prior
to landfall. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast now shows CHAN-HOM passing

over Lingayen Gulf tonight and shall make landfall over La Union between
1-3 AM tomorrow Friday May 8. It shall gradually weaken upon crossing the
Cordillera Mountains Friday afternoon til Saturday and dissipate off the
northeastern tip of Luzon, or in the vicinity of Northern Cagayan by

Sunday morning May 10. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility

that CHAN-HOM shall veer slightly to the North and just skim the coast

of Ilocos provinces, and make landfall over Taiwan. This scenario is

likely if the predicted High Pressure Ridge off South Korea strengthens

and becomes the dominant steering factor. The scenario remains poor at

this time.

+ EFFECTS: CHAN-HOM's circulation has become organized. Its outer rain-
bands now spreading across Northern and Central Luzon including Metro
Manila and is expected to moderate to heavy rains with winds & squalls

plus thunderstorms. Its inner rainbands and its core (eye and eyewall)

remains over the South China Sea and is expected to approach the coast

of Zambales and Pangasinan late this afternoon or tonight. 1-day rain-
fall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be along the storm's rain
bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center

of TY CHAN-HOM. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain

alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods,
mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible

near the center of CHAN-HOM. Minimal damage is likely on this type of
storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along

the beach-front areas of Western Luzon & Western Visayas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (NE) Monsoon temporarily

enhanced by CHAN-HOM is expected to start affecting Western Visayas

and Palawan beginning today, as the system moves closer to Western

Luzon. Cloudy skies with possible passing drizzle to occasional rains

and thunderstorms/squalls w/ SW'ly winds not exceeding 50 km/hr is

possible on these areas beginning today until Saturday. Possible land-

slides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods

are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks,

low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, I.T.C.Z

(aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms - most

especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 07 MAY 2009
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.5º N...LONGITUDE 118.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 220 KM (120 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 230 KM (125 NM) WNW OF SUBIC/OLONGAPO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 245 KM (132 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PH

DISTANCE 4: 250 KM (135 NM) WNW OF CLARK/ANGELES CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 270 KM (145 NM) WSW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 6: 310 KM (167 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH

DISTANCE 7: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF VIGAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 145 KM/HR (78 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 170 KM/HR (93 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 965 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PANGASINAN-LA UNION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 12 PM PST THU MAY 07
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 00Z THU MAY 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#03 - WESTERN PANGASINAN, LA UNION, AND ILOCOS SUR.
#02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE,
KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, AND ILOCOS NORTE.
#01 - METRO MANILA, CALABARZON, REST OF CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON
including BATANES, MINDORO, CALAMIAN GROUP, AND LUBANG ISLAND.

12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 07 MAY: 16.4N 119.8E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 08 MAY: 17.1N 120.8E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 09 MAY: 18.8N 122.0E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 07 MAY POSITION: 15.3N 117.5E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHAN-HOM) HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON
STATUS BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN RADIAL OUTFLOW
IMPROVED EARLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER
THE PAST 08 HOURS OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING TIME FRAME. THIS
INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS EXPANDED RADIALLY
IN SIZE AND HAS SEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MICROWAVE EYE, APPARENT IN
A 6 AM SSMIS PASS. A 6 AM QUIKSCAT PASS REFLECTED THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TY 02W IS TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE...(more)

>> CHAN-HOM, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 07 MAY: 15.5N 117.9E / NE @ 15 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

__________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
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Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CHAN-HOM (EMONG)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Typhoon CHAN-HOM (EMONG) - Update #001

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TYPHOON CHAN-HOM [EMONG/02W/0902]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 07 MAY 2009
Source: US JTWC WARNING #014/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

CHAN-HOM (EMONG) WHICH HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF

VIETNAM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, HAS TURNED EASTWARDS AND ENTERED THE

PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND BECOMES THE 2ND TYPHOON
OF THE 2009 WESTERN PACIFIC SEASON...NOW HEADING DANGEROUSLY TOWARDS

PANGASINAN-LA UNION-ILOCOS SUR AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHAN-HOM is expected to continue moving on a

generally ENE to NE track for the next 3 days, may still intensify

prior to landfall. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows CHAN-HOM

making landfall in between Ilocos Sur & La Union or in between La Union

& Pangasinan between 9-11 AM Friday May 8. It shall gradually weaken

upon crossing the Cordillera Mountains Friday afternoon til Saturday

and dissipate off the northeastern tip of Luzon, or in the vicinity of

Northern Cagayan by early Sunday morning May 10. These window of

projected paths are based on the majority of computer models but

changes are still possible as the storm is still less than a day

away from impact. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility

that CHAN-HOM shall veer slightly to the North and just skim the coast

of Ilocos provinces, and make landfall over Taiwan. This scenario is

likely if the predicted High Pressure Ridge off South Korea strengthens

and becomes the dominant steering factor.

+ EFFECTS: CHAN-HOM's circulation has become more compact w/ only a

small area of strong winds. Its outer rainbands now affecting affecting

the western coast of Luzon including Metro Manila and is expected to

bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall with passing squalls

and thunderstorms. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can

be along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to

300 mm near the center of TS CHAN-HOM. Residents in low-lying areas &

steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-

threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated

heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5

feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous ba-

ttering waves...is possible near the center of CHAN-HOM. Minimal damage

is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip

Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon &

Western Visayas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (NE) Monsoon temporarily