Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Sunday, January 04, 2009

TD AURING threatens Visayas-Bicol Area [Update #001]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 04 JANUARY 2009
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #003 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE PHILIPPINE

SEA...CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY EAST OF LEYTE GULF AS ITS

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION (CONVECTIVE RAIN CLOUDS) DRIFTED NORTHWARD. ITS

EXPOSED (CLOUDLESS) LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS NEAR 9.0N
128.2 OR OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO.

*Residents and visitors along Visayas, Bicol Region & Northern Mindanao should closely monitor

the progress of AURING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to move WNW slowly in the

direction of Eastern Visayas...passing over Leyte early tomorrow

morning...over the northern tip of Cebu early Tuesday morning...

and shall be off the coast of Northern Panay, just east of Boracay

on early Wednesday morning, Jan 7th.

+ EFFECTS: AURING's low-level and mid-level circulation remains dis-

organized near the coast of Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas.

Its convection rain bands is expected to bring widespread rains with

heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph across Samar and Leyte

Provinces today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is

possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to

200 mm near the center of AURING. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threate-

ning flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be

expected along the beach-front areas of Visayas and along the beach

front areas of Bicol Region and Northern Mindanao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon continues

to affect Eastern Philippines, from Cagayan down to Bicol Region.

Clear to cloudy skies with possible passing "on and off" rainshowers

& NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr is likely to prevail on these

areas for a couple of days.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) SUN 04 JAN 2009
LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 10.0º N...LONGITUDE 126.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 135 KM (72 NM) ENE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 230 KM (125 NM) SSE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 235 KM (127 NM) SE OF TACLOBAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 310 KM (167 NM) ESE OF CEBU CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 550 KM (297 NM) SSE OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 04 KM/HR (02 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN VISAYAS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 AM MANILA TIME SUN JAN 04
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JANUARY: 10.6N 125.2E

2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 11.3N 123.7E

2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 12.0N 122.3E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 JANUARY POSITION: 10.0N 126.8E.

_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD AURING (99W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Thursday, December 18, 2008

TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) - Final Update

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #014 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 18 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #030 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT ACCELERATES

RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EXITS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF

RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

*THIS IS THE FINAL EMAIL STORM UPDATE ON THE PROBABLY LAST TROPICAL

CYCLONE OF 2008.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue weakening and shall

dissipate in 24 to 36 hours.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's weakening circulation continues to become

disorganized and is not affecting any land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) THU 18 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.9º N...LONGITUDE 136.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 560 KM (302 NM) SW OF IWO TO
DISTANCE 2: 665 KM (360 NM) SW OF CHICHI JIMA
DISTANCE 3: 1,545 KM (835 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO TO AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 12 PM PST WED DEC 17 (FINAL)
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 22.3N 138.0E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.7N 139.9E / 65-85 KPH / EAST @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.8N 141.4E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER POSITION: 21.1N 135.3E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN)
HAS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENED IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED CONSIDERABLY
WITH ALL BUT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE REMAINING,
IN ADDITION TO WEAKENED BANDING...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 20.7N 135.2E / ENE @ 24 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

FINAL T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) - Update #013

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 17 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #026 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) JUST BARELY A TYPHOON AS IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY...HEADING

NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to be downgraded into a tropical

storm today and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

tomorrow morning. The cold-dry air from the NE Monsoon is forecast to

continue entering DOLPHIN's circulation, dissipating the storm in 48 to

72 hours. It shall be just a weak tropical disturbance (LPA) approaching

Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) early Saturday morning (Dec 20).

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation continues to shrink over the NE portion

of the Philippine Sea and is not affecting any land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) WED 17 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 131.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 950 KM (512 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,050 KM (567 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,060 KM (572 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,065 KM (575 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO TO-CHICHI JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST WED DEC 17
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 19.1N 132.3E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 20.5N 133.8E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.4N 137.7E / 55-75 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 DECEMBER: 23.0N 140.6E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER POSITION: 17.8N 131.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WHILE
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
NEAR 160300Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALED A DEVELOPING
EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, HOWEVER THIS HAS
SINCE BECOME UNDISTINGUISHABLE IN AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND THE SYSTEM
NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE WEAKENING TREND WAS ALSO
DISCERNABLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE STRONG BANDING
PREVIOUSLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HOWEVER, HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY FAINT TRACES OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...(more)

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.6N 131.3E / NNE @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm