Thursday, May 29, 2008

Typhoon NAKRI (06W) - Update #003

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TYPHOON NAKRI [06W/0805] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 29 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
NAKRI (06W) BECOMES THE 4TH TYPHOON OF THE 2008 SEASON..STILL BARELY
MOVING WITH A DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...MOVING CLOSER TO THE
PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...STILL NOT A THREAT TO THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to drift NW'ly for the next
24-36 hours, & shall then enter PAR early tomorrow morning. The 2
to 5-day long range forecast shows NAKRI reaching Category 3 on the
Saffir-Simpson Scale, with projected winds of 185 km/hr. It shall
turn Northward before recurving NNE to NE on Saturday, May 31..and
starts to transition into an Extratropical Cyclone as it passes close
to the north of Chichi Jima Island by early Monday morning, June 2. 

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's compact and intense circulation associated with its
radial, spiral, counter-clockwise cloud bands remains at sea and is not
affecting any small or large islands at the moment.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010) 
has dissipated and is no longer a suspect for TC development.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH: ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting NCR,
Luzon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao - will continue to bring scattered
rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 29 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 136.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 140 KM (75 NM) EAST OF PAR 
DISTANCE 2: 1,090 KM (590 NM) SSW OF IWO TO 
DISTANCE 3: 1,315 KM (710 NM) ENE OF BICOL REGION, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,430 KM (772 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN  
DISTANCE 5: 1,515 KM (817 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME THU MAY 29
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 MAY: 16.6N 135.8E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 MAY: 17.3N 135.2E / 165-205 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 MAY: 19.6N 134.6E / 185-230 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 JUNE: 24.0N 136.7E / 150-185 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 29 MAY POSITION: 16.0N 136.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) INTENSIFIED STEADILY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AS IT RESUMED A MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS STRENGTHENED POLEWARD OF
THE SYSTEM. THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS DECREASED AND A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IS EVIDENT IN A 5PM MAY 28 TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
AND A 6:04 PM MAY 28 SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING HAS BUILT POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower. 
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
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Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY NAKRI (06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 08:29 0 comments

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

TS NAKRI - Update #002

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM NAKRI [06W/0805] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 28 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (06W) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT REMAINED ALMOST
STATIONARY OUTSIDE AND NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE PHILIPPINE
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOT A THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to drift NW to NNW across the
Western Pacific, closer to PAR and may become a Typhoon early tomorrow
morning (May 29). It shall then reach its peak strength of 160 km/hr
(Category 2) by early Saturday morning (May 30) and start recurving in
the direction of Chichi Jima-Iwo To Area. The 4 to 5-day long range
forecast shows NAKRI becoming Extratropical as it passes north of
Chichi Jima early Monday morning, June 2. 

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's compact and improving spiral-cloud bands remains at
sea...not affecting any small or large islands at the moment.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010)
remains weak, as it drifts westward towards the coast of Aurora...loca-
ted about 240 km. NE of Casiguran, Aurora (17.0N 124.2E)...packing winds
of 30 km/hr, this disturbance will be observed closely for possible deve-
lopment into a Tropical Cyclone in the coming hours or days. Click here
to view the near real-time satellite photo (courtesy of NOAA/MTSAT-1R).

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is locally
induced by a Tropical Disturbance (92W/LPA) off the coast of Aurora - is
currently bringing scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region
and Northern Visayas today. Elsewhere, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting
Rest of Luzon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao - will continue to bring sca-
ttered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or
evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.7º N...LONGITUDE 137.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 270 KM (145 NM) EAST OF PAR 
DISTANCE 2: 540 KM (290 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP 
DISTANCE 3: 1,235 KM (667 NM) SSW OF IWO TO (FORMERLY IWO JIMA)
DISTANCE 4: 1,415 KM (765 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH  
DISTANCE 5: 1,665 KM (900 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 04 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED MAY 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 MAY: 15.1N 137.3E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 29 MAY: 15.8N 136.8E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 MAY: 17.2N 135.5E / 150-185 KPH / N @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 MAY: 19.3N 135.1E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 MAY POSITION: 14.5N 137.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NAKRI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FORWARD
TRACK SPEED HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 06 TO 12
HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AND A 6:32 PM MAY 27 SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower. 
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NAKRI (06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 09:05 0 comments

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Tropical Storm (TS) NAKRI - Update #001

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL STORM NAKRI [06W/0805] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 27 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (06W) NEWLY-FORMED TO THE NORTH OF YAP ISLAND...
TRACKING NORTHWESTERLY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE PHILIPPINE
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOT YET A THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to resume its NNW track across
the Western Pacific. It may reach Typhoon status Thursday afternoon
(May 29) and starts recurving Friday evening on its way to Iwo To
(formerly Iwo Jima) on Sunday, June 1. 

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's spiral cloud bands remains at sea...not affecting
any small or large islands.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010),
slowly organizing with mid-level cyclonic turning, but remains weak...
located about 260 km. ENE of Casiguran, Aurora (16.6N 124.5E)...packing
winds of 30 km/hr, this disturbance will be observed closely for possible
development into a Tropical Cyclone in hours or days. Click here to view
the near real-time satellite photo (courtesy of NOAA/MTSAT-1R).

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is locally
induced by Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) is bringing scattered rainshowers
and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Southern Luzon, Bicol Region
and Northern Visayas today. Elsewhere, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting
Central Luzon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao - will continue to bring sca-
ttered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or
evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 27 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.3º N...LONGITUDE 137.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 270 KM (145 NM) EAST OF PAR 
DISTANCE 2: 540 KM (290 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP 
DISTANCE 3: 1,235 KM (667 NM) SSW OF IWO TO (FORMERLY IWO JIMA)
DISTANCE 4: 1,415 KM (765 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH  
DISTANCE 5: 1,665 KM (900 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME TUE MAY 27
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 MAY: 15.0N 137.1E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 MAY: 16.0N 136.8E / 100-130 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 MAY: 17.6N 136.2E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 30 MAY: 19.6N 135.8E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 MAY POSITION: 14.1N 137.6E.
^A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXTENDED TO THE SURFACE, FORMING
TROPICAL STORM (TS) NAKRI TO THE NORTH OF YAP. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED. RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A MARKED INCREASE IN FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower. 
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NAKRI (06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 19:21 0 comments

Saturday, May 24, 2008

T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week May 26-June 01, 2008]

 
Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
For Week: MAY 26-JUNE 01, 2008 [MONDAY TO SUNDAY] 
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) SAT 24 MAY 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) SAT 31 MAY
_____________________________________________________________________________
  
[1] An increased chance of below-average rainfall across South China Sea
and Philippines. Dry conditions are expected due to the weak phase of MJO.
Numerical Global Forecast also depicts this kind of situation.
Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Formation of a significant Tropical Cyclone over the Northern or North-
eastern Philippine Sea is possible between May 29 to June 02. Some global
models are showing the existence of this tropical system developing over the
Western Pacific Ocean between latitudes 18-25 and longitudes 133-140.
Confidence: LOW.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above weekly tropical forecast outlook, does
not guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes can happen within the designated outlook week.
_____________________________________________________________________________

> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday except during
  presence of Tropical Cyclones within the Philippine Area of Res-
  ponsibility (PAR).

> The next outlook will be issued on Saturday, May 31, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models
_____________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Always visit these web addresses for the latest info on Philippine Tropical
Cyclones:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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Posted by MJ Klein at 08:39 0 comments

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