Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Saturday, November 02, 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #016

for Saturday, 02 November 2013 [8:22 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 02 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 03 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) has slowed down gradually while over the South China Sea. Its wind intensity remains and is forecast to make a southwestward dive towards the Central Vietnam within the next 2 to 3 days.

Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the large eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northwestern part of the South China Sea...about 260 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China or 490 km east-northeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island...currently moving west-northwest slowly with a decreased forward speed of 07 km/hr across the South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to drift slowly westward in the next 12 hours before making a west-southwest to southwesterly turn through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will remain over the open waters of the South China Sea, well to the east of Hainan Island today through Tuesday.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will maintain its strength within the next few hours and will start weakening...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) by 48 hours as it moves across the western part of the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 95 km/hr on Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Starts moving west-southwest across the western part of the South China Sea...weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 290 km south of Macau, China [2PM NOV 03: 19.6N 113.5E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a TS as it moves more southwesterly across the western part of the South China Sea, just well to the southeast of Hainan Island...about 140 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Is. [2PM NOV 04: 17.3N 110.4E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it makes landfall over Central Vietnam...moving across land areas...about 210 km SW of Da Nang, Vietnam. [2PM NOV 05: 15.0N 106.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LARGE 55-KM RAGGED EYE - over the northwestern portion of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northwestern part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern and NW part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China and Northwesterrn part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 02, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 20.0º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 260 km SSE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 2: 290 km SE of Macau, China
Distance 3: 490 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan Island
Distance 4: 610 km WNW of Laoag City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph
Towards: South China Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #015

for Saturday, 02 November 2013 [8:58 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 02 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 02 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) has regained strength...now at Category 3 as it slows down while over the South China Sea.

Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the large eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located over the South China Sea...about 505 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 355 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 13 km/hr across the South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 140 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to move westward in the next 12 hours and will turn west-southwest to southwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will remain over the open waters of the South China Sea, well to the east of Hainan Island on today through Monday.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will maintain its strength within the next few hours and starts weakening to a Tropical Storm (TS) by 48 hours as it moves across the western part of the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 110 km/hr on early Monday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving west-southwest across the South China Sea as it loses strength to Category 2...about 335 km south of Hong Kong, China [2AM NOV 03: 19.2N 114.0E @ 160kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a TS as it moves more southwesterly across the South China Sea, just well to the east of Hainan Island...about 185 km south-southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Is. [2AM NOV 04: 17.7N 111.3E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam...about 115 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam. [2AM NOV 05: 16.1N 109.3E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LARGE 65-KM RAGGED EYE - over the northwestern portion of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northwestern part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern and NW part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China and Northern part of the West Philippine and South China Seas (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Nov 02, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 19.5º N Lat 116.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km SSE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 2: 395 km SE of Macau, China
Distance 3: 505 km WNW of Laoag City, PH
Distance 4: 580 km E of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph
Towards: South China Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

NOTE:

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Friday, November 01, 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #014

for Friday, 01 November 2013 [8:21 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 02 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it tracks west-northwest across the West Philippine and South China Seas with no change in strength.

Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the large eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located over the West Philippine and South China Seas...about 360 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 455 km southeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr across the West Philippine and South China Seas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to move west-northwest to west in the next 24 hours then turns west-southwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will remain over the open waters of the South China Sea, well to the east of Hainan Island on Saturday through Sunday.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will re-intensify through the next 24 hours while moving across the western part of the South China Sea...and by 48 hours, it will start to weaken due to entrainment of cooler-dry air from the approaching surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to a peak of 160 km/hr on Saturday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moving west across the South China Sea as it regains Category 2 (TY) status...about 385 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM NOV 02: 19.9N 115.4E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it turns west-southwest towards Eastern Hainan...about 215 km east-southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Is. [2PM NOV 03: 19.5N 113.8E @ 120kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns southwestward as it weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 70 km northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. [2PM NOV 04: 17.6N 111.6E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine and South China Seas (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Nov 01, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 19.4º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 455 km SE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 3: 505 km SE of Macau, China
Distance 4: 725 km E of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph
Towards: West Philippine and South China Seas.
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)