Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Thursday, June 18, 2009

TS LINFA (03W) - Update #003

for Thursday, 18 June 2009 [6:55 PM PST]

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Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on LINFA!
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TS LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 18 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #005 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm 03W is now internationally known as LINFA...almost stationary over the South China Sea, just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...may affect Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to remain quasi-stationary w/in the next 6 hours before starting to drift ENE to NE-ward, entering PAR tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA reaching its peak winds of 95 kph, passing very close to the Batanes and Calayan Group of Islands by late Saturday evening, June 20th. It shall then weaken into a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands by early Tuesday morning, June 23rd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that LINFA shall track more to the North and pass along Taiwan Strait. This scenario remains poor at this time.

+ Effects: LINFA's main circulation continues to improve & remains over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA continues to affect Luzon...becoming more intense along the western parts including Metro Manila & Mindoro. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...has been relocated near lat 18.9N lon 124.9E...about 340 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...currently moving North slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu June 18 2009
Location of Center: 17.6º N Lat 116.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km (250 nm) West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 490 km (265 nm) WSW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 545 km (295 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 695 km (375 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 02 kph (01 kt)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Thu June 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Thu June 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu June 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE: 17.9N 116.7E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.4N 117.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 20.2N 120.0E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.1N 122.6E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JUNE POSITION: 17.8N 116.4E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W HAS INTENSIFIED TO 40 KTS AS IS EVIDENT
FROM A 17/2233Z QUIKSCAT PASS. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, A WELL
DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 03W IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY...(more)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JUNE: 17.6N 116.3E / QUASI-STATIONARY / 65 kph (Outside PAR)

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS 03W (UNNAMED) - Update #002

for Thursday, 18 June 2009 [12:52 PM PST]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on 03W!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed June 17 2009):

There will be no 12AM updates for active tropical cyclones when it is not yet a threat to any landmass. Updates will only be issued at 6AM, 12PM and 6PM respectively. However, the links into various typhoon agencies except T2K are 100% updated. The reason for this is that I also need to rest and have some sleep. Please bear with me.

03W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 03W (UNNAMED)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 18 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #004 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm 03W (UNNAMED) gaining strength as it drifts Eastward during the past 6 hours...may affect Extreme Northern Luzon through the weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 03W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 03W is expected to drift ENE w/in the next 24 hours and accelerate, reaching its peak strength of 100 kph on Saturday. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 03W maintaining its intensity as it passes over the Batanes and Calayan Group of Islands, in between Luzon & Taiwan by Saturday evening, June 20th. It shall then weaken into a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands by Monday evening, June 22nd.

+ Effects: 03W's main circulation has started to improve and grow, as it remains over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by 03W continues to affect Luzon and Western Visayas including the Bicol Region...becoming more intense along the western parts of Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...located near lat 25.5N lon 125.0E...about 310 km East of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...currently moving North @ 20 kph.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu June 18 2009
Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 116.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 405 km (220 nm) WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 425 km (230 nm) WSW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 550 km (297 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 620 km (335 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: East @ 04 kph (02 kts)
General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Thu June 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Thu June 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JUNE: 18.3N 117.1E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 07 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.6N 117.8E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.8N 120.1E / 100-130 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 21 JUNE: 21.3N 122.7E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JUNE POSITION: 18.1N 116.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W HAS INTENSIFIED TO 40 KTS AS IS EVIDENT
FROM A 17/2233Z QUIKSCAT PASS. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, A WELL
DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 03W IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY...(more)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 18 JUNE: XX.XN XXX.XE / XXX @ XX KPH / XX kph - NO DATA

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 03W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic

Messages | Photos

Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
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Tropical Storm (TS) 03W (UNNAMED) - Update #001

for Thursday, 18 June 2009 [7:15 AM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed June 17 2009):

There will be no 12AM updates for active tropical cyclones when it is not yet a threat to any landmass. Updates will only be issued at 6AM, 12PM and 6PM respectively. However, the links into various typhoon agencies except T2K are 100% updated. The reason for this is that I also need to rest and have some sleep. Please bear with me.

03W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 03W (UNNAMED)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 18 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #003 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

03W (UNNAMED) becomes a Tropical Storm as it barely moves over the South China Sea...may threaten Extreme Northwestern Luzon including Batanes-Calayan Group of Islands this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 03W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 03W is expected to remain quasi-stationary & drift ENE w/in the next 24 hours, reaching its peak strength of 85 kph tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 03W maintaining its intensity as it accelerates towards the ENE to NE, passing over the Batanes and Calayan Group of Islands, in between Luzon & Taiwan by early Sunday morning, June 20th. It shall then weaken into a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands early Tuesday morning, June 23rd.

+ Effects: 03W's main circulation is somewhat small but continues to develop and remains along the South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by 03W continues to affect the whole of Luzon and Visayas including the Bicol Region...becoming more intense along the western parts including Metro Manila. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...consolidating slowly...located near lat 19.0N lon 125.2E...about 350 km East of Aparri, Cagayan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving north slowly during the past 12 hours. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall associated with its western outerbands can be expected along the NE coast of Cagayan.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu June 18 2009
Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km (240 nm) WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) West of Laoag City
Distance 3: 520 km (280 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 655 km (355 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu June 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Thu June 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JUNE: 18.4N 116.5E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 04 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.6N 116.9E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.5N 119.1E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 20.8N 121.3E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 JUNE POSITION: 18.2N 116.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W ENTERED WARNING STATUS AT 170600Z.
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION ARE SLOWLY TAKING PLACE. THE SYSTEM WAS RELOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON MORE RECENTLY AVAILABLE ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171032Z SSMI IMAGE SHOW
CONSOLIDATION OCCURRING UNDER THE CENTRAL OVERCAST...(more)

>> CHAN-HOM, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (20 GMT) 18 JUNE: XX.XN XXX.XE / XXX @ XX KPH / XX kph - NO DATA

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 03W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm