Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Sunday, December 14, 2008

TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) heading WSW... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #014 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA...

MAY BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue tracking WSW to

westward for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning to the WNW tomorrow

morning. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning sharp-

ly NW to NNW-ward as a passing frontal system off SE China breaks the

high pressure ridge north of DOLPHIN. It shall then weaken rapidly into

a 95-kph Tropical Storm on Wednesday Dec 17...down to a Tropical Depre-

ssion on Thursday Dec 18 as it encounters cool dry air from the North-

east Monsoonal Surge off the Northern Philippine Sea. *Alternate
Forecast Scenario: There's a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall

continue tracking Westward passing more or less 200 km to the north

of Catanduanes-Camarines Area on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.

This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off

SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north

of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation has become more radial with dual pole-

ward & equatorial outflows. Its rain bands is not yet affecting any

major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to

100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations

of up to 250 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.6º N...LONGITUDE 132.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 920 KM (497 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 975 KM (527 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,005 KM (542 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,025 KM (553 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 978 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST SUN DEC 14
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z SAT DEC 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 131.8E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.9N 130.4E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.3N 128.3E / 110-140 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.0N 127.3E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.8N 133.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS REMAINED AT ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 27W CONTINUES TO TRACK DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.9N 133.7E / WEST @ 15 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Saturday, December 13, 2008

TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) enters PAR...may threaten Bicol Region [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 13 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #012 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) NOW ENTERING THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR)...MAY THREATEN THE BICOL REGION AND EASTERN LUZON EARLY NEXT

WEEK.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue tracking west to

slightly WSW for the next 24 hours, becoming a Typhoon with winds of

130 kph late tomorrow. The system is then forecast to turn sharply

to the WNW by early Monday morning, sparing the Bicol Peninsula. The

3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning sharply NW to

NNW-ward as a passing frontal system off SE China breaks the high

pressure ridge north of DOLPHIN. It shall then weaken into a 85-kph

Tropical Storm on Wednesday Dec 17 or Thursday Dec 18 as it traverses

the Northern Philippine Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's
a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall continue tracking Westward
passing more or less 100 km to the north of Catanduanes-Camarines
Area on Tuesday but weakening rapidly into a weak Tropical Storm.

This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off

SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north

of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation slowly improving with the development

of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Its rain bands is not yet affecting

any major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up
to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations
of up to 200 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) SAT 13 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 135.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 10 KM (5 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 1,165 KM (630 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,235 KM (667 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,265 KM (683 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,285 KM (695 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 PM MANILA TIME SAT DEC 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 134.0E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.5N 132.3E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 14.5N 129.3E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 16.0N 128.0E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 DECEMBER POSITION: 14.0N 135.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED
WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122054Z WINDSAT CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WARM SPOT AT 14.0N 137.6E, WHICH HAS AIDED IN
POSITIONING THE STORM...(more)

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 13.9N 135.5E / WEST @ 19 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS DOLPHIN (Pre-ULYSSES) moving closer to the PAR... [Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [PRE-ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 13 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #010 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES) A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE

PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN DOLPHIN is expected to track westward and

enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight, rea-

ching minimal Typhoon strength (120 kph) early Monday morning, Dec 15.

A new 3 to 5-day long-range forecast package now shows DOLPHIN weake-

ning into a Tropical Storm & turning more to the WNW to NW'ly on Tues-

day Dec 16 - as a passing frontal system from China tries to break the

High Pressure Ridge north of DOLPHIN. *Alternate Forecast Scenario:

There's still a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall continue tracking

Westward passing more or less 100 km to the north of Catanduanes-Cama-

rines Area on Tuesday but weakening rapidly into a weak Tropical Storm.

This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off

SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north

of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation has become slightly better organized.

Its rain bands is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its

rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the

center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) SAT 13 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.3º N...LONGITUDE 137.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 1,405 KM (758 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,465 KM (790 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,495 KM (807 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,510 KM (815 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 AM MANILA TIME SAT DEC 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.6N 136.2E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 14.7N 134.4E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 14.3N 131.4E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.4N 129.0E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 DECEMBER POSITION: 14.3N 138.3E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS DOLPHIN (27W) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED
SPIRAL BANDING CURVATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF AN OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS
THE LLCC, AND SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT
REGION ALOFT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS WITH A WEAK
POLEWARD CHANNEL DEVELOPING AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm