Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Typhoon NIDA (26W) - Update #026

 


for Tuesday, 01 December 2009 [6:23 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 01 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #038 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon NIDA continues to weaken as it moves slowly northwestward.

    *Cooler dry air, increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and slightly lower sea surface temperatures are the ones that contribute for the weakening of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue Dec 01 2009
    Location of Eye: 20.5º N Lat 137.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 610 km (330 nm) SW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 270 km (145 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,625 km (878 nm) East of Batanes, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    140 kph (75 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
    Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
    Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 PM PST Tue Dec 01

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue moving WNW and weaken fast within the next 2 days. This system will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm tomorrow as cold dry air, increasing upper level winds and cooler sea surface temperatures enters its circulation. It will then start recurving towards the NE on Thursday (2PM Dec 03: 22.9N 135.5E). The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming an Extratropical Cyclone while accelerating NE-ward on Friday (2PM Dec 04: 26.5N 138.0E). This recurvature scenario is due to an appoaching strong middle-latitude low pressure (aka. frontal system) digging from the north. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) just north of NIDA's ill-defined Eye or along the Northern EyeWall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Clear to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains and squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
     
  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 02 DECEMBER: 20.7N 137.1E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 09 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 02 DECEMBER: 21.3N 136.3E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 09 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 03 DECEMBER: 22.9N 135.5E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / NE @ 20 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 DECEMBER: 26.5N 138.0E / 65-85 KPH (XT) / --- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 01 DECEMBER POSITION: 20.4N 137.7E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TY 26W
    HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION IN LIGHT OF A DETERIOR-
    ATING ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO IMPRESS UPON THE NORTHWESTERN
    QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS
    SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TY 26W, BUT HAS
    YET TO PENETRATE THE CENTRAL CORE OF WARMER/MOIST AIR. THE EYE HAS
    DETERIORATED AND IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN THE MSI. UPPER LEVEL ANALY-
    SIS SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING BUFFERED FROM THE
    DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, HAVE ALLOWED TY 26W TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT
    INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GREATER
    PENETRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE, AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
    SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY CAUSE TY 26W TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
    TO SHOW A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN MID-
    LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CAUSING A RECURVE AROUND THE EASTERN
    STR. GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
    WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD TRACK AND THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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