Thursday, May 17, 2007

TS YUTU (02W) - Update #02

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 
Name: TROPICAL STORM YUTU [02W/0702] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 17 MAY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 18 MAY 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
  
02W (UNNAMED) HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM YUTU...TO
PASS VERY CLOSE TO YAP ISLAND TONIGHT...RAINS WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YUTU is expected to turn WNW to NW'ly &
shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomo-
rrow afternoon (Fri May 18). This system is expected to reach
typhoon strength Saturday afternoon (May 19). The 3 to 5-day
long range forecast (May 20-22) shows YUTU making a Northward
turn before recurving towards the NNE across the Eastern Phi-
lippine Sea. Based on this latest forecast run, the storm will
not threaten/affect any part of the Philippines. However,
please be aware that forecast do change every 6 hours. 

+ EFFECTS: Outer (rain) bands associated with this storm are
currently affecting the Micronesian Islands of Palau, Yap,
Ulithi today until tomorrow. Rains and winds of not in excess
of 60 km/hr can be expected tonight until tomorrow as the
storm passes by.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: N/A.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.2º N...LONGITUDE 138.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) ESE OF YAP IS., FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,460 KM (788 NM) ESE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,490 KM (805 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,655 KM (895 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAP-ULITHI AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM PST THU MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 9.7N 137.1E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 10.8N 135.4E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 9.0N 139.3E.
^RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES CON-
VECTION IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TS YUTU IS
TRACKING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS ANCHORED NORTH OF MICRONESIA. THE STR WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE UNTIL A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN JAPAN BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AFTER 48
HOURS, INDUCING A MORE POLEWARD TURN. THE AVAILABLE DYNA-
MIC AIDS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND
PREDICT TS YUTU WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 72 HRS.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE TC WILL FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK THAN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SINCE UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS AT YAP AND GUAM STILL INDICATE A EAS-
TERLY STEERING CURRENT...(more info)

>> YUTU {pronounced: yu~tu}, meaning: The Jade Hare. The 
   hare which lives on the moon. Chang'e, wife of Yi (a 
   tribal chief in ancient China), stole her husband's 
   elixir of immortality, and fled to the moon together 
   with the hare. They are said to be still living there 
   in a palace. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS YUTU (02W/0702)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

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Posted by MJ Klein at 21:21

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